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One year into his second term, President Donald Trump faces declining approval ratings that could impact Republican fortunes in the upcoming midterm elections, despite GOP leadership’s optimism about defying historical trends.
Trump’s approval rating has fallen to concerning levels, standing at 45% in the latest Wall Street Journal poll, 41% in Reuters/Ipsos, and averaging 42% across national surveys compiled by Real Clear Politics. More troubling for the administration, 55% of Americans disapprove of the president’s job performance.
The president began his second term with positive approval ratings, but they dipped below the 50% mark last March and have gradually declined since then. While Republican support remains solid, opposition has hardened, particularly among Democrats.
“Support among Republicans has remained in place, but the opposition has become even more calcified,” veteran Republican pollster Daron Shaw told Fox News Digital. He pointed to independent voters as a particular area of concern for the White House and Republican strategists nationwide.
“It’s true that Independents don’t turn out in particularly high levels in midterm elections, but they do vote and that’s where erosion in support of the president can cost Republicans seats not only in the House but also in some close Senate races,” Shaw warned.
Economic issues, which propelled Republicans to sweeping victories in 2024 as they recaptured the White House, Senate, and maintained their House majority, now appear to be working against them. Democrats attribute their strong performance in the 2025 off-year elections to focusing on affordability issues amid persistent inflation.
Trump’s approval ratings on economic matters are slightly lower than his overall numbers, a worrying sign for Republicans. An overwhelming majority of respondents in a recent Fox News poll expressed concern about high prices and the cost of living.
Republicans counter by highlighting tax cuts included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Trump’s signature domestic achievement during his second term. “From an affordability standpoint, I think we win hands down based on the policies this president has pushed,” argued Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters.
Democrats disagree sharply. “As working families struggle to afford groceries, utilities, and health care, and worry about finding a job, Trump is busy meddling in foreign countries and palling around with executives, failing to address Americans’ top concerns on the economy,” Democratic National Committee Rapid Response Director Kendall Witmer said in a statement.
Immigration, another issue that helped Trump win re-election, has become increasingly problematic for the administration. Public sentiment has shifted following incidents like the recent fatal shooting of a Minnesota woman and mother of three by an ICE agent during a protest against Trump’s immigration enforcement policies.
Presidential approval ratings are historically significant indicators of midterm election performance. Trump’s two-term predecessors faced severe midterm losses during their second terms when their approval ratings were underwater. George W. Bush’s approval was more than 15 points in negative territory by Election Day 2006, while Barack Obama was 10-12 points below water leading up to the 2014 midterms.
Republicans face an additional challenge unique to the Trump era: mobilizing “MAGA voters” who may not turn out when Trump’s name isn’t on the ballot. Gruters emphasized that the president has already made stops in three key midterm battlegrounds and “going to barnstorm the country with our candidates.”
“We got to make sure we turn our voters out, and we got to make sure that we have people energized. And there’s nobody that can energize our base more than President Trump,” the RNC chair said.
Shaw noted a significant shift in the political landscape: “The turnout question now is really a Republican question more than a Democratic one.” This represents a complete reversal from the pre-Trump era when Democrats were considered less reliable voters.
“There is very little question Democrats are going to turnout to oppose Trump and the Republicans,” Shaw concluded. “Are Republicans going to show up and vote?”
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18 Comments
The declining approval for Trump is a bit surprising, given the strong party loyalty. But I suppose even longtime supporters can get worn down over time. It will be telling to see if that translates to real losses for Republicans in November.
You raise a good point. Midterm elections are often seen as a referendum on the president, so Trump’s numbers could absolutely impact GOP fortunes, even among his core base.
The Trump effect seems to be a double-edged sword for Republicans. While his base remains loyal, his declining approval could dampen turnout or alienate crucial independent voters. It’s shaping up to be a fascinating midterm cycle.
Absolutely. The GOP will have to walk a fine line – energizing their base while not alienating moderates. It’s a tricky balance, and one that could determine the outcome in many key races.
The declining Trump approval ratings are certainly a cause for concern for Republicans. While his core supporters remain, the erosion of independent support could be problematic. It will be fascinating to see how this all plays out in the coming months.
I agree. The independent vote is often the deciding factor in close elections. If the GOP can’t win back some of those swing voters, it could spell trouble in November.
This is a complex political landscape, with Trump’s influence seemingly a double-edged sword for Republicans. While his base is loyal, his declining approval could hurt the party’s chances with independent voters. It’s going to be an intriguing midterm cycle to watch.
Absolutely. The GOP will have to walk a fine line, appealing to their base while not alienating moderates. It’s a tricky balancing act, and one that could make all the difference in close races.
It’s interesting to see Trump’s approval ratings dipping, even with continued GOP support. Voters seem increasingly polarized, which could make for a volatile midterm environment. I wonder how the economy and other key issues will factor in.
Absolutely, the economy and bread-and-butter issues will be a major focus. Voters will be looking at inflation, jobs, and other pocketbook concerns when casting their ballots.
The polling data is certainly concerning for Republicans, with Trump’s numbers slipping and independent voters seeming to sour on the party. But it’s still early, and a lot can change between now and November. I’ll be watching this race closely.
Good point. A lot can happen in the political world between now and election day. Both parties will be working hard to sway voters and get their supporters to the polls.
I’m curious to see how this all shakes out. The political landscape is so polarized these days, it’s hard to predict how voters will respond. Independents could really make the difference, as they often do in close races.
Agreed. The independent vote will be crucial, especially in swing states and districts. Both parties will be laser-focused on courting those swing voters in the coming months.
It’s an interesting dynamic, with Trump’s influence seeming to be a mixed bag for Republicans. His loyal base remains, but he may be alienating the independent voters that could make the difference. I wonder how the party will navigate that challenge.
Exactly. The GOP will have to find a way to thread the needle – energizing their base while not turning off moderates. It’s a delicate balancing act, and one that could decide the outcome of the midterms.
The midterm polls are certainly painting a mixed picture for the GOP. While Republican support remains strong, it seems independent voters could be a real wildcard. Curious to see how this all shakes out as we get closer to election day.
That’s a good point. The independent vote will be crucial, especially in close races. Both parties will be working hard to sway those swing voters.