Takeaways from the 2025 general election, in charts

In a dramatic reversal from last year’s presidential election, Democratic candidates in Virginia and New Jersey secured decisive victories this week, marking a significant swing back from the Republican momentum that propelled Donald Trump in 2024, according to an Associated Press analysis of election data.

From suburban enclaves to major metropolitan areas and military communities, voters shifted substantially toward Democratic candidates. Many regions that had moved toward Trump last year, particularly in New York and New Jersey, reverted to voting patterns more closely resembling those of 2020.

This electoral whiplash occurred amid relatively strong turnout for off-year elections, reinforcing a pattern that has defined American politics for the past decade: Republicans perform well when Trump appears on the ballot, while Democrats fare better when he does not.

In Virginia, Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger secured a remarkable 14.4-point victory in the gubernatorial race—far exceeding Vice President Kamala Harris’s 5.8-point margin in the state during the 2024 presidential election and even surpassing President Joe Biden’s 10.1-point win in 2020. This impressive showing was bolstered by overwhelming support in Northern Virginia, a region heavily populated by federal workers affected by ongoing government shutdowns and budget constraints.

Spanberger’s commanding victory allowed her to capture 15 counties and independent cities previously won by Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin four years earlier. Notably, six of these jurisdictions—including Spotsylvania, Lynchburg, and Nelson—had supported Trump in 2024, highlighting her broad appeal. Her campaign benefited from a substantial spending advantage of approximately $27 million, as well as Trump’s reluctance to endorse her Republican opponent.

In New Jersey, Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill continued the state’s tradition of electing governors from the party not occupying the White House, winning by 13.5 points. Her victory was particularly significant given recent voting patterns suggesting a much tighter race might have been expected. Her Republican opponent, Jack Ciattarelli, had nearly unseated incumbent Democratic Governor Phil Murphy in 2021, coming within just three percentage points.

Between that close 2021 race and Tuesday’s election, Trump had made substantial inroads in New Jersey, flipping five counties that Biden won in 2020 and narrowing the Democratic advantage in the state to just 5.9 percentage points. Sherrill’s decisive win reversed this trend, reclaiming all five counties Trump had flipped and even improving on Harris’s performance in Bergen County, the state’s most populous, by more than eight points.

Turnout figures varied across Tuesday’s elections. New Jersey recorded its highest participation rate in a gubernatorial election since 2009, with nearly 50% of eligible voters casting ballots. Virginia’s turnout approached 2021 levels, with final numbers still pending as remaining ballots are counted.

In New York City, state assemblymember Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral campaign generated enthusiasm that brought more than two million voters to the polls—a level of participation not seen in a mayoral race since 1969, when John Lindsay secured his second term.

Mamdani’s performance was particularly notable among demographic groups that had shifted toward Trump in recent elections. Despite earlier concerns about his appeal to voters of color, Mamdani won nearly every majority Black and Hispanic neighborhood in the general election. Of the 47 New York City neighborhoods that shifted at least 25 points toward Trump in 2024, Mamdani carried 37. According to AP Voter Poll data, he also captured approximately three-quarters of voters under 30, a demographic where Trump had made gains nationally.

Tuesday’s results also had implications for the upcoming congressional midterms. California voters approved Proposition 50, which temporarily substitutes a Democratic-drawn congressional map for one created by an independent redistricting commission. This makes California the first state to adopt a new map likely to add Democratic seats, potentially flipping as many as five Republican-held House seats next year. Four other states—Texas, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio—have enacted new maps since Trump began encouraging redistricting efforts over the summer, all creating more favorable conditions for Republican candidates.

The ongoing government shutdown, now in its sixth week, appeared to influence voting patterns among affected groups. Federal workers, many of whom have been furloughed or are working without pay, strongly supported Democratic candidates. Military households, also impacted by the shutdown, were more evenly divided, splitting their support in Virginia and favoring the Republican candidate in New Jersey.