Prolonged war in Iran could test Republicans’ loyalty to Trump: poll

Rising Gas Prices and Iran War Test Republican Support for Trump

As fuel costs continue to climb, Donnie Beson watches with growing concern. The 68-year-old Colorado resident has devoted a lifetime to restoring classic cars, but escalating gas prices are putting pressure on his hobby—and his politics.

“Come on, Trump. Worry about us,” said Beson from his Woodland Park home. “We’re in a billion-dollar-a-day war. It’s like, ‘Man, you forgot about the other stuff, and you got to take care of that first.'”

While Republicans remain broadly supportive of President Donald Trump, a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research reveals potential vulnerabilities in that support as the conflict with Iran extends into its fourth week. The findings suggest Trump risks alienating key voters during this critical midterm election year by engaging in precisely the type of Middle Eastern conflict he once pledged to avoid.

The poll shows a complicated picture of Republican attitudes toward the war. While 63% of Republicans support airstrikes against Iranian military targets, only 20% favor deploying American ground troops—a stark indication that support for military action has clear limitations even among the president’s base.

The economic impact of the conflict presents another challenge. Oil and gas prices have surged since hostilities began, adding financial strain at a time when many Americans already struggle with the cost of essentials. About six in ten Republicans report being at least “somewhat” concerned about their ability to afford gas in the coming months, though they express less anxiety than other Americans.

Despite these concerns, Trump maintains strong backing among Republicans. Roughly three-quarters approve of his overall job performance, with a similar 70% endorsing his handling of Iran specifically. These figures align with general Republican support for Trump’s broader foreign policy approach, including his recent intensification of pressure on Cuba’s leadership.

Sharon Fuller, a 68-year-old retired hospital analyst from Ocklawaha, Florida, exemplifies this steadfast support. While expressing some reservations about the conflict, she described Trump as a “huge patriot” and praised the stock market’s performance under his renewed presidency.

“I don’t really agree with the war, but on the other hand, I think it’s a necessity at this point,” Fuller said.

Republicans diverge significantly from the general population in their view of the conflict. A recent Quinnipiac University poll found approximately 80% of registered Republican voters believe the Iran war will make the world “safer,” compared to only one-third of voters overall.

The AP-NORC poll reveals strong Republican alignment with one of Trump’s stated objectives: 81% consider preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons “extremely” or “very” important. However, only about half prioritize replacing Iran’s government with more U.S.-friendly leadership.

For some Trump voters, the conflict has become a breaking point. Stephen Hauss, a 40-year-old state Agriculture Department employee from Delaware who voted for Trump in 2024, has reconsidered his support since the war began.

“Before the war I was just kind of like, ‘OK, like, I voted for him. I got to give him, like, some benefit of the doubt,'” Hauss said. Now, he opposes U.S. efforts to change another country’s leadership, adding, “I don’t think I am on board with this anymore.”

Thomas Sweeney, a 76-year-old retired chemical engineer from Texas and Army veteran who supported Trump through three elections, expressed similar frustration. “I’m not happy. I am frustrated,” he said. “Soldiers are very, very precious. You just don’t go in there and waste lives.”

Rising fuel costs represent a particular vulnerability for Trump, even within his party. About three-quarters of Republicans consider keeping gas prices down “extremely” or “very” important for U.S. foreign policy—a priority potentially at odds with continued military engagement in the Middle East.

The Quinnipiac poll found roughly 30% of registered Republican voters report that gasoline prices have become a “very” or “somewhat” serious problem for their families recently. If these high prices persist, they could further frustrate Trump supporters who hoped the president would reduce everyday expenses.

Fuller, while maintaining her Republican loyalty, had a clear message for the president: “I’d like him to see what he can do to get prices down for, quote, the working people and myself now living on a fixed income.”

The AP-NORC poll surveyed 1,150 adults between March 19-23 using NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4 percentage points overall and 6.7 percentage points for Republicans specifically.