Most Americans see Iran as an enemy but doubt Trump’s judgment on military force, AP-NORC poll finds

Americans Remain Wary of Iran’s Nuclear Program While Questioning Trump’s Military Judgment

As U.S. and Iranian negotiators prepare for their next round of nuclear talks in Geneva, a new poll reveals Americans continue to view Iran’s nuclear ambitions with significant concern, while simultaneously harboring doubts about President Donald Trump’s judgment on international military matters.

Approximately half of U.S. adults are “extremely” or “very” concerned that Iran’s nuclear program poses a direct threat to the United States, according to the latest Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll. Another 30 percent report being “moderately” concerned, while only about 20 percent express little or no concern.

The survey, conducted February 19-23, captures American sentiment during a period of escalating military tensions between the two nations. The United States continues pushing for restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program to prevent weapons development, while Tehran maintains its atomic pursuits are peaceful and resists demands to halt uranium enrichment or surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile.

Trump, who withdrew from the previous nuclear agreement with Iran during his first term, has repeatedly threatened military action to force Iranian compliance. He claimed to have “obliterated” parts of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure during a 12-day bombing campaign in June, though Iran has subsequently refused inspection requests from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) at the targeted sites, raising nonproliferation concerns.

“We are in negotiations with them,” Trump said during his recent State of the Union address. “They want to make a deal, but we haven’t heard those secret words: We will never have a nuclear weapon.”

Prior to the June conflict, Iran had been enriching uranium to 60 percent purity—just short of weapons-grade levels. The IAEA had noted Iran was the only non-nuclear-armed country in the world enriching to such levels.

The poll reveals a partisan divide in concerns about Iran’s nuclear activities. While 56 percent of Republicans report being “extremely” or “very” concerned, only 44 percent of Democrats express similar levels of worry. However, the overall proportion of Americans highly concerned has remained stable since a similar poll conducted in July 2025, suggesting recent escalations haven’t significantly shifted public opinion.

Most Americans—61 percent—view Iran as an “enemy” of the United States, a slight increase from 53 percent in a September 2023 Pearson Institute/AP-NORC poll. Roughly 30 percent categorize the relationship as “not friendly, but not enemies,” while just 10 percent consider Iran either “friendly” or a “close ally.”

Age appears to influence these perspectives significantly. Only about half of Americans under 45 classify Iran as an enemy, compared to approximately 70 percent of those 45 and older. Similarly, just one-third of younger Americans report high concern about Iran’s nuclear program, while about 60 percent of older adults express such worries.

This generational gap may reflect the decades-long history of U.S.-Iran tensions over nuclear issues, particularly following Trump’s 2018 unilateral withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement negotiated under the Obama administration.

Despite widespread concerns about Iran, Americans express limited confidence in Trump’s judgment on international conflicts. Only about 30 percent of U.S. adults have “a great deal” or “quite a bit” of trust in Trump regarding military force, relationships with adversaries, or nuclear weapons use. More than half trust him “only a little” or “not at all.”

While approximately 60 percent of Republicans express high trust in Trump’s judgment, even this support shows generational divisions. Only about half of Republicans under 45 report high confidence in Trump’s military decisions, compared to roughly two-thirds of older Republicans. Meanwhile, about 90 percent of Democrats express low trust in Trump’s judgment on these matters.

The upcoming Geneva talks represent the third round of nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran this year, mediated by Oman. Previous discussions broke down following the outbreak of what became the 12-day conflict in June. Both nations have signaled willingness to resort to military action if diplomatic efforts fail, with the U.S. assembling its largest Middle East military presence in decades amid rising tensions.

The AP-NORC poll surveyed 1,133 adults using NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel and carries a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.