Mexico Emerges as Cuba’s Lifeline as US Pressure Mounts

Following the imprisonment of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro, Mexico has quietly stepped into a critical role as Cuba’s primary oil supplier, raising concerns among U.S. lawmakers and analysts about the implications for regional politics and upcoming trade negotiations.

As of January, Mexico reportedly accounts for 13,000 barrels per day—approximately 44% of Cuba’s oil imports—becoming the key factor keeping the Communist island’s struggling economy afloat. This shift comes at a precarious time for Cuba, which experts describe as being at its weakest point in 65 years.

“The Cuban government was, even before this action with Maduro, probably at the weakest point that the regime has been in the last 65 years,” said Rep. Carlos Gimenez, the only Cuban-born member of Congress. “This just makes them weaker. My one concern is that it appears that Mexico is now trying to prop them up.”

The Trump administration is considering implementing a maritime blockade on oil imports to Cuba, a significant escalation from its previously announced plan to cut off imports from Venezuela. Such a measure could potentially trigger an economic crisis in Cuba, potentially leading to the collapse of the Castro/Diaz-Canel regime—an outcome long hoped for by many Cuban-Americans.

Mexico’s support for Cuba extends beyond oil shipments. Under President Claudia Sheinbaum, the relationship has deepened to include a controversial Cuban medical program that critics describe as “forced slavery for revenue,” where Cuban doctors work in Mexico and send remittances home, much of which allegedly funds the regime.

The Sheinbaum administration has characterized its oil shipments as “humanitarian aid” for the Cuban people, but U.S. officials view these actions differently. This developing situation adds another layer of tension to an already strained U.S.-Mexico relationship, particularly given President Trump’s frustration with Mexico’s resistance to U.S. intervention against drug cartels.

“It’s a major issue,” said Andres Martinez-Fernandez, a Latin America policy analyst at the Heritage Foundation. “If Mexico City wants to continue aiding Havana, it had better prepare for severe pushback.”

The upcoming review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in July could serve as a critical leverage point. U.S. lawmakers suggest using these trade talks to pressure Mexico to reconsider its support for Cuba, with the Center for Strategic and International Studies predicting that the U.S. will likely seek additional concessions from its trade partners.

“Would it be okay for us to kind of nudge them over the edge? I don’t know a problem with that,” quipped Gimenez, suggesting that Congress could use the USMCA negotiations to influence Mexico’s Cuba policy.

Cuba is already experiencing significant domestic challenges, including rolling blackouts, food shortages, medical supply problems, and declining tourism. President Trump has declared there will be “no more oil or money going to Cuba – Zero,” and the Department of War has been seizing sanctioned “shadow-fleet” oil tankers.

Historically, Cuba faced a similar predicament in the 1990s after losing Soviet support, until Hugo Chavez’s Venezuela stepped in as a patron in 1999. With Venezuela now unable to maintain that role and China apparently unwilling to fill the void, Cuba’s options for international support are dwindling.

“I do think that there is a likely need for additional developments before we see that kind of next step collapse of the regime itself,” Martinez-Fernandez noted, suggesting that while the regime is vulnerable, its immediate collapse isn’t guaranteed.

A White House official stated that Cuba is failing due to its own policies and that the Cuban leadership suffered a major setback when they lost support from Maduro’s regime. The official indicated that Trump believes Cuba should negotiate “before it is too late.”

As the situation evolves, the intertwined issues of regional politics, trade negotiations, and humanitarian concerns continue to shape this complex international dynamic, with significant implications for U.S. foreign policy in Latin America.