How Trump will use his State of the Union address to sell skeptical midterm voters on his plans

President Trump’s State of the Union address on Tuesday is expected to serve as a preview of Republican messaging for the November congressional elections, as the GOP seeks to retain control of the House and Senate amid challenging political headwinds.

Recent polls indicate vulnerability for both Trump and his party, with much of the American electorate expressing distrust in the president’s governance during his first year back in office. Compounding his challenges, the Supreme Court dealt a significant blow to his economic agenda last week by ruling that he lacked authority to impose many of his sweeping tariffs, a cornerstone of his economic and foreign policy.

While the address will likely concentrate on domestic issues, Trump’s escalating threats of military action against Iran over its nuclear program cast a shadow over the upcoming speech.

The president faces an uphill battle on key issues that previously served as political strengths. According to the latest Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research survey, only 39% of Americans approve of Trump’s economic leadership, while just 38% support his immigration policies. These figures reflect ongoing public concern about inflation in groceries, housing, and utilities—problems exacerbated by Trump’s unpredictable tariff policies. Public sentiment has also soured following viral videos of violent confrontations with protesters, including incidents where two U.S. citizens were killed by federal agents.

Since his administration passed major tax cuts last year, Trump has introduced few substantive economic policy initiatives. Recent speeches have largely recycled talking points about tax reductions, plans to lower mortgage rates, and a new government website for purchasing prescription drugs.

Friday’s Supreme Court ruling against his tariff authority creates further economic uncertainty, as the president has already vowed to pursue alternative methods to continue his import tax agenda. This comes alongside Commerce Department data showing economic growth slowed in the last quarter of the previous year.

“I think it makes it even more important that the speech really focus on the economy,” noted Republican strategist Alex Conant. “The president needs to bolster his economic message.”

The administration’s strategy appears to involve blaming current economic challenges on decisions made by former President Joe Biden in 2021 and 2022, while simultaneously claiming credit for positive indicators like recent stock market gains. “Watch the State of the Union. We’re going to be talking about the economy. We inherited a mess,” Trump stated at the White House on Wednesday—echoing similar rhetoric from his address to Congress last year, where he mentioned Biden thirteen times.

Despite Trump’s “America First” stance, his aggressive foreign policy approach over the past year has raised concerns among some supporters who believe he should prioritize domestic issues. Under his leadership, the administration has conducted military strikes in Yemen, Nigeria, and Iran, while maintaining ongoing operations against alleged drug-trafficking vessels near South America. Trump also shocked the international community in January with a surprise raid to capture Venezuela’s then-leader Nicolás Maduro and suggested using military force to acquire Greenland.

Recent weeks have seen increased U.S. military presence in the Middle East as tensions with Iran escalate, though Trump has struggled to articulate how these international maneuvers benefit everyday Americans. Analysts predict he may downplay foreign policy in favor of economic issues during Tuesday’s address.

Vice President JD Vance reinforced this expectation, telling Fox News on Saturday that the speech will emphasize “the importance of bringing jobs back into our country, of reshoring manufacturing, of all these great factories that are being built,” along with strategies to lower energy costs.

The State of the Union has evolved under Trump’s presidency, moving away from its traditional role of unifying the country. “What you’re going to expect is some version of a campaign speech in which the Democrats are the villains, the Republicans he likes are the heroes, and he is the savior not only of the nation but of the globe,” said Kathleen Hall Jamieson, communications professor at the University of Pennsylvania.

The congressional audience reaction may prove equally significant as Trump’s words. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries has called for “a strong, determined and dignified Democratic presence in the chamber,” though some members might boycott the address in protest. Previous State of the Union events have featured dramatic moments, such as former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi tearing up a copy of Trump’s 2020 speech.

Historically, State of the Union addresses have limited lasting impact. “A State of the Union only matters in moments when the country is undergoing a great trauma—a war, an attack, a global crisis—and a president and Congress want to speak in a (mostly) united voice to the country,” observed Matt Latimer, former Republican speechwriter for President George W. Bush. “That’s not what we are experiencing now.”

With Trump’s tendency to deviate from prepared remarks, the possibility remains that spontaneous comments or subsequent social media posts could overshadow his carefully crafted message.