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Democrats Gain Ground in Key Races, AP Voter Poll Reveals Demographic Shifts
Democratic candidates secured important victories across Tuesday’s elections, showing potential to recapture support among voter groups that had shifted toward Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential race.
The AP Voter Poll, which surveyed more than 17,000 voters in New Jersey, Virginia, California and New York City, provided detailed insights into voting patterns and issue priorities across various demographic groups. While Democrats celebrated wins, the results also highlighted challenges, particularly among young male voters and Jewish voters in New York City.
In New York City, Zohran Mamdani, 34, won the mayoral race and will become the city’s youngest mayor in over a century. Mamdani, who identifies as a democratic socialist, secured overwhelming support from younger voters, with approximately three-quarters of voters under 30 casting ballots for him in a three-way contest against former Governor Andrew Cuomo, who ran as an independent, and Republican Curtis Sliwa.
Youth voters were crucial to Mamdani’s victory, though they represented a relatively small portion of the overall electorate. Many reported this was their first time voting in a mayoral election. While Cuomo performed better among older voters, he couldn’t overcome Mamdani’s strong youth support. About one-quarter of New York City voters identified themselves as democratic socialists, with this identification rising to roughly 40 percent among voters under 30.
In New Jersey, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mikie Sherrill showed significant strength among non-white voters, an encouraging sign for Democrats who saw erosion of support in these communities during the 2024 presidential election. While Sherrill won about half of white voters, who comprised roughly 70 percent of the electorate, she received overwhelming backing from other groups – approximately 90 percent of Black voters, 80 percent of Asian voters, and two-thirds of Hispanic voters supported her campaign.
A similar pattern emerged in Virginia, where Democrat Abigail Spanberger performed well among Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters despite not securing a majority of white voters.
Mamdani’s election as New York’s first Muslim mayor was powered by overwhelming support from Muslim voters, with about 90 percent backing his candidacy. However, this religious group comprises only about 4 percent of the city’s electorate. Meanwhile, about 60 percent of Jewish voters supported Cuomo, reflecting months of anxiety within New York’s Jewish community over Mamdani’s criticism of Israel. Only 30 percent of Jewish voters supported Mamdani. Approximately half of both Jewish and Muslim voters cited candidates’ positions on Israel as “a major factor” in their voting decisions.
Gender divides were particularly pronounced among younger voters. In New Jersey, approximately 80 percent of women under 30 supported Sherrill, compared to just over 50 percent of men in the same age group. Virginia showed similar patterns, with roughly 80 percent of young women backing Spanberger versus 60 percent of young men. The gender gap persisted but narrowed among older voters.
Federal government employment emerged as a significant factor in Virginia’s gubernatorial race. About 20 percent of Virginia voters reported having someone in their household employed by the federal government or as a federal contractor. These voters were more likely to support Spanberger, with approximately two-thirds casting ballots for the Democrat, compared to just over half of voters without government workers in their families.
The ongoing government shutdown’s impact was evident, with about 60 percent of Virginia voters reporting their family finances had been affected by federal cuts this year. Roughly two-thirds of these affected voters supported Spanberger.
Military service households presented a challenge for Sherrill, a Navy veteran who faced scrutiny over a cheating scandal during her time at the U.S. Naval Academy. She received support from only about 40 percent of voters from military households, which represented approximately one-quarter of New Jersey’s electorate. In Virginia, where military households comprised about 40 percent of voters, Spanberger fared better, winning about half of this demographic.
The comprehensive AP Voter Poll was conducted by SSRS from October 22 to November 4, incorporating data from registered voters in California, New Jersey, New York City, and Virginia through online, telephone, and in-person collection methods, with margins of error ranging from 1.9 to 2.1 percentage points.
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12 Comments
The 2025 election results highlight the ongoing evolution of the political landscape, with both parties facing unique challenges and opportunities. It will be crucial for all stakeholders to engage in substantive, evidence-based discussions to better understand the drivers behind these demographic shifts.
The data on voting patterns across different demographic groups provides valuable insights, but as mentioned, the sample size and methodology should be scrutinized. Interpreting these results requires a nuanced understanding of the complexities within each voter segment.
Absolutely. Relying solely on top-line numbers without deeper analysis can lead to oversimplified conclusions. A more comprehensive evaluation of the data, including potential biases or limitations, would help policymakers and political strategists make more informed decisions.
While the Democratic gains are noteworthy, the article also highlights some persistent challenges, particularly around younger male voters and Jewish voters in NYC. Understanding the nuances of these voting patterns will be crucial for both parties as they develop their strategies for future elections.
The demographic data provides valuable insights, but I wonder how representative the AP Voter Poll sample was, especially given the relatively small turnout among young voters. It would be helpful to see a more comprehensive analysis of voting patterns across different age, racial, and socioeconomic groups.
That’s a fair point. The poll results should be interpreted with some caution, as the sampling methodology and weighting can significantly impact the findings. A deeper dive into the data and methodology would help provide a more complete picture.
The victory of the 34-year-old democratic socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani in the NYC mayoral race is certainly noteworthy. It will be intriguing to see how his policy agenda and approach resonate with the city’s diverse electorate.
Indeed, Mamdani’s win as the youngest mayor in over a century reflects a potential appetite for more progressive leadership in the city. I’m curious to see how he navigates the challenges of governing such a complex urban center.
The rise of democratic socialist candidates like Zohran Mamdani is an intriguing trend that bears watching. It will be interesting to see how his policy platform and governing approach resonate with the broader electorate, both in NYC and potentially beyond.
Agreed. Mamdani’s victory could signal a shift in voter preferences, especially among younger generations. It will be crucial to monitor how his tenure as mayor unfolds and whether it inspires similar candidates to seek office in other urban centers.
Interesting to see the demographic shifts in the 2025 election results. It looks like Democrats were able to recapture some of their previous support, but still faced challenges with certain voter groups like young men and Jewish voters in NYC. Curious to learn more about the key issues that drove these changes.
Yes, the trends are quite fascinating. It will be important to dig into the nuances and understand what factors contributed to the shifts across different voter segments.