House GOP Majority Narrows to Single Vote as Johnson Swears In New Democrat

The House Republicans’ majority in Congress has shrunk to a razor-thin one-vote margin following Democrat Christian Menefee’s victory in a special election in Texas over the weekend.

Speaker Mike Johnson swore in Menefee on Monday evening, bringing the chamber’s composition to 218 Republicans against 214 Democrats. The new arithmetic creates a precarious situation for GOP leadership: with full attendance, losing just two Republican votes on any partisan measure would result in a 216-216 tie, causing legislation to fail.

This timing couldn’t be more challenging for Johnson, who is currently navigating a partial government shutdown crisis. The House is expected to vote Tuesday on a funding compromise negotiated between Senate Democrats and the White House. Republicans will need near-unanimous support within their ranks for the legislation to clear procedural hurdles like the “rule vote” – a traditionally partisan procedural step that must be passed before final consideration of a bill.

Menefee, a former attorney for Houston’s Harris County, won the special election in a solidly Democratic district that had remained vacant for nearly a year. According to the Associated Press, he defeated fellow Democrat and former Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards in Saturday’s runoff election.

The seat had been vacant since March 2025 following the death of Rep. Sylvester Turner, who himself had only recently won election to Congress in 2024. Turner, a former longtime state lawmaker and two-term Houston mayor, had filled the seat previously held by the late Democratic Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee.

This electoral development adds significant pressure to Johnson’s already difficult task of managing the House Republican conference. The speaker has previously succeeded in passing significant legislation with majorities as small as two or three seats, but the new one-vote margin leaves almost no room for defections.

The redistricting process for the 2026 midterms has redrawn Texas’s congressional maps as part of the ongoing high-stakes battle between President Donald Trump’s Republicans and Democrats. However, Saturday’s special election was conducted using the state’s current district lines.

House Republican leadership is acutely aware of the political tightrope they must walk. Johnson himself acknowledged the fragility of the situation last month when he implored his GOP colleagues: “They’d better be here. I told everybody, and not in jest, I said, no adventure sports, no risk-taking, take your vitamins. Stay healthy and be here.”

This development represents a significant boost for House Democrats, who are now just five seats away from potentially reclaiming the majority. It could affect Republicans’ ability to advance partisan legislation on immigration, energy policy, and government spending – all priorities in the Trump administration’s second term agenda.

The shrinking Republican margin also comes during a period of heightened partisan tensions in Washington. With a divided government – Republicans controlling the House and presidency, Democrats maintaining their Senate majority – finding common ground on major legislation was already challenging. The new balance of power in the House further complicates the legislative landscape.

For bills requiring bipartisan support, such as the pending government funding measure, Johnson may increasingly need to rely on moderate Democrats to offset potential losses from his right flank. This dynamic could potentially strengthen the position of the Democratic minority in negotiations on must-pass legislation.

As Congress faces crucial deadlines in the coming weeks, including resolving the ongoing partial government shutdown, all eyes will be on Speaker Johnson’s ability to navigate this new political reality with virtually no margin for error.