Listen to the article
Violent Crime Rates Plummet Across U.S. Cities, Study Finds
A dramatic 21% decline in homicide rates across 35 American cities has been reported for 2025, according to a comprehensive new study released Thursday by the Council on Criminal Justice, an independent, nonpartisan think tank.
The significant decrease represents approximately 922 fewer homicides compared to 2024 figures, part of a broader trend showing declines in 11 of the 13 tracked crime categories. Among the notable reductions were a 27% drop in vehicle thefts and a 10% decrease in shoplifting incidents.
“It’s a dramatic drop to an absolutely astonishing level,” said Adam Gelb, president and CEO of the council. “As we celebrate it, we also need to unpack and try to understand it. There’s never one reason crime goes up or down.”
The council’s report revealed that 31 of the 35 cities surveyed experienced decreased homicide rates, with particularly striking reductions in Denver, Omaha, and Washington D.C., each recording declines of 40% or more. Little Rock, Arkansas stood as an outlier, reporting a 16% increase in its homicide rate during the same period.
While sexual assault figures remained static between 2024 and 2025, and drug crimes showed a minor uptick, the overall crime landscape has shifted dramatically downward following the unprecedented spikes witnessed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Some cities have recorded their lowest crime rates in decades.
The widespread nature of these declines has prompted criminologists to reconsider traditional understandings of crime trends and their causes. “We want to believe that local factors really matter for crime numbers, that it is fundamentally a neighborhood problem with neighborhood-level solutions,” Gelb noted. “We’re now seeing that broad, very broad social, cultural and economic forces at the national level can assert huge influence on what happens at the local level.”
The findings come amid fierce political debate over criminal justice policies. Republicans, some of whom questioned decreases reported in 2024, have attributed this year’s improvements to tough-on-crime measures, including National Guard deployments in cities like New Orleans and Washington D.C., as well as immigration enforcement operations.
However, the council’s report indicates that cities without such interventions experienced similar declines, challenging simple partisan explanations. Democratic mayors have likewise claimed their policies contributed to the reductions.
Jens Ludwig, Director of the University of Chicago Crime Lab and a public policy professor, cautions against attributing these trends to any specific initiative. “The fact that in any individual city, we are seeing crime drop across so many neighborhoods and in so many categories, means it can’t be any particular pet project in a neighborhood enacted by a mayor,” Ludwig explained.
He emphasized that the widespread nature of the decline suggests broader factors at work. “And because the decrease is happening in multiple cities, it’s not like any individual mayor is a genius in figuring this out.”
Ludwig suggests the decreases may partly reflect a continuing return to normalcy following pandemic-era disruptions that drove significant crime increases. This hypothesis suggests the current improvements might not represent a permanent shift.
“If you look at violent crime rates in the U.S., it is much more volatile year to year than the poverty rate, or the unemployment rate; It is one of those big social indicators that just swings around a lot year to year,” Ludwig said.
The council collects its data directly from police departments and other law enforcement sources across the country. While some categories included information from all 35 cities studied, others contained fewer due to variations in crime definitions or data tracking methodologies between jurisdictions.
Despite the encouraging findings, experts urge caution in drawing conclusions. “Regardless of credit for these declines, I think it’s too soon for anybody on either side of this to declare mission accomplished,” Ludwig warned, highlighting the complex and often unpredictable nature of crime trends in American cities.
Fact Checker
Verify the accuracy of this article using The Disinformation Commission analysis and real-time sources.
12 Comments
Interesting to see a sharp decline in homicide rates across many US cities. Wonder what specific factors contributed to these positive trends – better policing, social programs, economic conditions? Curious to learn more about the underlying reasons.
Yes, the 21% overall drop is quite remarkable. Likely a combination of factors at play rather than any single cause. Encouraging to see progress being made on public safety.
A 27% drop in vehicle thefts is particularly noteworthy. Curious to understand if new anti-theft technologies, tougher penalties, or other targeted initiatives contributed to this sizable reduction.
Absolutely, the vehicle theft statistic is an interesting data point. Proactive measures by law enforcement and the auto industry likely played a role in curbing that specific crime.
Little Rock as the outlier with a 16% increase in homicides is concerning. Wonder what unique challenges or circumstances that city is facing compared to the broader trend of declining rates. Important to understand the local nuances.
Yes, the Little Rock data point stands out as an exception that merits closer examination. Identifying the specific factors contributing to that increase could provide valuable lessons for other cities looking to sustain public safety improvements.
The broad-based declines across 11 out of 13 tracked crime categories is an encouraging sign. Hopeful this trend continues and we see further progress on public safety nationwide.
Agreed, the declines across multiple crime metrics suggest a more holistic improvement in public safety, not just isolated to homicides. Curious to see if this positive momentum can be maintained in the years ahead.
A 40% drop in homicides for cities like Denver, Omaha and DC is really significant. Curious to understand the local policies and initiatives that may have driven these sizable reductions in violent crime.
Agreed, those localized declines of 40% or more are quite impressive. Would be insightful to dig into the specific programs and strategies implemented in those cities to achieve such substantial improvements.
The 10% decrease in shoplifting incidents is also an interesting data point. Wonder if that reflects broader economic improvements or targeted retail security efforts. Curious to learn more about the drivers behind that trend.
Good point. The shoplifting decline could be influenced by both macro-economic factors as well as more localized loss prevention initiatives by retailers. Understanding the nuances would provide helpful context.