He’s blasted Speaker Johnson and Democrats alike. Now this Republican faces a critical decision

California Republican Faces Tough Choices Amid Redistricting Fallout

Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley of California finds himself at a political crossroads as redistricting has dramatically altered his electoral prospects. The three-term congressman must now navigate a challenging political landscape that has split his current district into six pieces, forcing him to make difficult decisions about his political future.

Kiley plans to announce his reelection strategy on Monday, having narrowed his options to two paths: challenging fellow Republican Rep. Tom McClintock in a primary or running in a Democratic-leaning district where he would face significant headwinds.

“I’m not going away at all,” Kiley has defiantly stated, reflecting his determination to remain in Congress despite the obstacles.

The congressman’s predicament stems from the nationwide redistricting battle that began when Texas redrew its maps to favor Republicans, gaining five more GOP-friendly districts. California Democrats responded in kind, with voters approving new congressional boundaries that potentially give Democrats a shot at winning up to five additional seats.

Kiley isn’t alone in his struggle. Several California Republicans face similar challenges, including Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim, who will compete against each other in a newly drawn district. Rep. Darrell Issa’s district now tilts toward Democrats, while Rep. David Valadao’s Central Valley district has become even more Democratic-leaning.

In response to these developments, Kiley has been vocal in his criticism of House leadership. He introduced legislation to prohibit states from conducting more than one congressional redistricting after each decennial census, though the bill has gained little traction with just one co-sponsor.

He has also publicly criticized House Speaker Mike Johnson for not doing more to address the redistricting wars that have spread to multiple states. “Why is the leader of this institution simply watching as the institution crumbles?” Kiley asked during a floor speech.

Johnson defended himself against Kiley’s criticisms, calling them “misinformed” and pointing to the $13 million he helped raise to fight California’s redistricting effort. “Last cycle, I practically lived in California,” Johnson said. “I spent so many days campaigning in California, I thought Gavin Newsom was going to send me a tax bill.”

As Kiley weighs his options, he must choose between McClintock’s reliably Republican district or an open Sacramento County-focused district that leans Democratic by about eight percentage points based on 2020 presidential election results.

Political analysts note that Kiley has positioned himself as somewhat independent from GOP leadership and even from former President Trump on certain issues. He was one of six Republicans who voted to rescind tariffs Trump imposed on Canada and previously voted to override two Trump vetoes. He also introduced legislation to temporarily extend health care subsidies under the Affordable Care Act, though he ultimately voted against the clean extension sought by Democrats.

Republican strategist Rob Stutzman suggests this independent streak could help Kiley appeal to moderate voters in a Democratic-leaning district. “He’s positioning himself to basically run as a Republican that is independent of the speaker and the leadership, and independent from the White House,” Stutzman observed.

However, Democratic strategist Paul Mitchell is skeptical about Kiley’s chances in the Sacramento-area district. “It is a more swingy seat than a seat in Santa Monica or San Francisco, but it’s not a seat that I think a Republican wins, especially not in a blue wave election,” said Mitchell, a political data expert.

The alternative—challenging McClintock—presents its own difficulties. McClintock, who has served nine terms in the House and 22 years as a California legislator, recently secured endorsements from the influential Club for Growth Political Action Committee and former President Trump.

“Desperate people do desperate things, but it’s a free country and he’s free to run where he wishes,” McClintock said regarding a potential challenge from Kiley.

Financial considerations will also play a role in Kiley’s decision. FEC records show he has a significant cash advantage, with over $2 million on hand compared to McClintock’s less than $100,000 as of December.

Kiley’s campaign recently spent over $175,000 on political ads positioning him as an opponent of Governor Gavin Newsom, with most spending directed toward the Fresno and Visalia media markets rather than Sacramento—potentially signaling his electoral intentions.

As the March 4 filing deadline approaches, Kiley continues to meet with constituents throughout the state to determine his best path forward in what promises to be one of California’s most closely watched congressional races of the 2024 cycle.