GOP effort to add House seats in Florida through census lawsuit hits a snag

Republican Census Lawsuit in Florida Dismissed as Untimely by Federal Court

A federal court in Tampa delivered a significant blow to Republican groups challenging the 2020 census results in Florida on Tuesday, ruling that their lawsuit was filed too late. The case, which claimed statistical methods used in the census undercounted Florida’s population and cost the state two congressional seats, was dismissed by a three-judge panel of the U.S. District Court.

The plaintiffs, including the Pinellas County Young Republicans, University of South Florida College Republicans, and U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, filed their lawsuit in September 2025. However, the court determined they should have initiated legal action within four years from when the statistical methods were implemented. The Census Bureau had released state-by-state population figures in April 2021.

Despite the dismissal, the judges granted the plaintiffs an opportunity to amend and refile their case. Robert Quincy Bird, an attorney representing the Republican groups, has not yet responded to requests for comment on their next steps.

The legal challenge comes amid broader efforts by former President Donald Trump to encourage Republican-controlled state legislatures to redraw congressional districts in ways that would benefit the GOP before this year’s midterm elections. Rep. Donalds, who is now running for governor of Florida, is known as a strong Trump ally and has maintained close ties with the former president throughout his political career.

Census figures have substantial political implications, as they determine not only congressional representation but also the allocation of federal funds to states and localities. Florida’s population growth has been among the nation’s highest in recent decades, making accurate counts particularly consequential for the state’s political influence.

The lawsuit specifically targeted the statistical methods employed by the Census Bureau during the 2020 count, which occurred during unusual circumstances due to the COVID-19 pandemic. These methods included imputation techniques to account for non-responding households and other statistical tools designed to improve accuracy in challenging counting conditions.

Republicans have increasingly questioned the 2020 census results, particularly in states where they believe conservative-leaning populations may have been undercounted. A successful legal challenge could potentially alter the basis for congressional redistricting, potentially shifting the balance of power in the House of Representatives.

Political analysts note the irony in the timing of these challenges. While the final 2020 census numbers were released during the early months of the Biden administration, the planning, execution, and methodological decisions for the count occurred during Trump’s presidency. The very statistical methods being challenged were implemented while Trump was in office.

Florida currently holds 28 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, making it the third-largest state delegation after California and Texas. The plaintiffs’ claim that Florida should have received two additional seats would have further increased the state’s already significant influence in Congress.

This case highlights the ongoing politicization of the census process, which has traditionally been viewed as a nonpartisan demographic exercise. Census data forms the foundation for numerous governmental functions beyond political representation, including the distribution of approximately $1.5 trillion in federal funding annually.

The court’s decision underscores the strict procedural requirements for challenging census methodology and results, potentially setting a precedent for similar cases in other states where census figures have been disputed.