Listen to the article
Five Key Congressional Races to Watch in 2026
As Clement Moore’s “‘Twas the Night Before Christmas” tells it, families sleep soundly as Santa approaches. In similar fashion, several election contests in 2026 may prove just as quiet – until close results suddenly come into focus. While the 2024 election cycle has barely concluded, political strategists are already analyzing the landscape for the next congressional midterms.
In Mississippi’s 2nd Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Bennie Thompson, who has represented the district since winning a special election in April 1993, could face his most serious challenge in decades. Thompson has become a nationally-recognized figure, having chaired the House Select Committee on January 6, and recently drew controversy for calling the shooting of West Virginia National Guardsmen allegedly by an Afghan refugee an “unfortunate accident.”
The district, spanning from Jackson west to the Mississippi River, ranks as the third poorest in the country with a median income of just $37,372. Attorney Evan Turnage, 33, a former counsel to Sen. Charles Schumer, has mounted a surprise primary bid against Thompson, making the fight against the region’s persistent poverty central to his campaign. On the Republican side, retired Army captain and cardiothoracic surgeon Ron Eller faces an uphill battle in this traditionally Democratic stronghold.
Connecticut’s 5th Congressional District presents another potential surprise battleground. While Connecticut has been reliably Democratic in recent years, this wasn’t always the case. During the Bush-Clinton years, the state was competitive and sometimes Republican-leaning. In 2022, Republican George Logan – the first Black man elected to Hartford’s upper chamber – came within one percentage point of defeating Democratic Rep. Jahana Hayes. Logan tried again in 2024 but lost by a slightly wider margin. Recent history suggests Republicans could have an outside chance of ending Democrats’ full control of New England’s congressional delegation in 2026.
Maryland’s 6th Congressional District has been a target for Republicans ever since partisan gerrymandering was blamed for ousting 20-year incumbent Rep. Roscoe Bartlett in 2012. The rural district, which includes the entire Maryland Panhandle, was adjusted to incorporate densely-populated Washington, D.C. suburbs, dramatically altering its political makeup. Former state Del. Neil Parrott is mounting his fourth consecutive bid for the seat after losing to Democratic Rep. April McClain-Delaney by a 53-47 margin in 2024. Given newly-drawn, friendlier maps following litigation over gerrymandering, Republicans may have a chance to flip this seat in one of the most reliably Democratic states.
Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District may prove pivotal if the overall contest for House control remains as close as in recent years. Republican Rep. Don Bacon, one of the few in his party to publicly criticize President Donald Trump, is retiring. The district, centered in Douglas and Saunders counties including Omaha, already has numerous candidates on both sides. Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding leads state Sen. Brett Lindstrom in Republican fundraising, while at least five Democrats have entered the race. Bacon won his last race by less than one percentage point, and after recent GOP losses in Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia and New Jersey, this district presents a tough hold for Republicans.
The New Mexico gubernatorial race rounds out this list of sleeper contests. Democratic Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham is term-limited, creating an open race in this increasingly blue-leaning state. While New Mexico was preceded by Republican Susana Martinez, the state has been trending more Democratic in recent years. Former Interior Secretary and congresswoman Deb Haaland is the biggest name in the Democratic field, while Greggory Hull, the longtime mayor of Rio Rancho, leads Republican contenders.
Despite lacking the urban population typical of most blue states, New Mexico has seen Republicans increasingly out of power. The last Republican senator, Pete Domenici, retired in 2008. In the most recent election, Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez held off a challenge from predecessor Yvette Herrell in the 2nd congressional district, which was seen as the GOP’s best chance to make inroads again in the border state.
As 2026 approaches, these five races may not be garnering headlines yet, but they represent potential battlegrounds where shifts in voter sentiment, candidate quality, or demographic changes could produce surprising results that impact the balance of power in Washington.
Fact Checker
Verify the accuracy of this article using The Disinformation Commission analysis and real-time sources.
14 Comments
The article’s focus on lesser-known congressional races is a good reminder that the political landscape can shift in surprising ways, even in districts that have long been considered safe for one party. I’ll be keeping an eye on these contests.
With the 2024 elections still fresh, it’s smart for strategists to already be analyzing potential battlegrounds for 2026. These sleeper races could end up having significant national implications, so they’re worth watching closely.
While the 2024 election cycle may still be dominating headlines, it’s prudent to start looking ahead to the 2026 midterms. Unexpected challenges in places like Pennsylvania’s Alleghenies and New Mexico could shake up the political landscape in interesting ways.
The diversity of these potential sleeper races, from mining/energy hubs to traditional swing districts, underscores the complexity of the electoral map. It will be fascinating to see how these dynamics play out over the next few years.
Interesting to see how the political dynamics could shift in mining/energy-focused districts like Pennsylvania’s Alleghenies and New Mexico. The incumbent’s recent controversies in Mississippi’s 2nd District also create an opening for a challenger. I’ll be following these races with interest.
The diversity of these potential sleeper races underscores the complexity of the political landscape. It will be fascinating to see how factors like economic conditions and shifting voter sentiment play out in these less high-profile contests.
This race in Mississippi’s 2nd District is worth watching. The incumbent’s recent controversy could open the door for a younger challenger to pull off an upset, especially given the district’s economic struggles. I’m curious to see how this plays out.
The demographics and economic conditions in this district could make it a prime pickup opportunity for the challenger. It will be interesting to see if the incumbent’s national profile helps or hurts him in the local race.
This article highlights some intriguing sleeper races that could have broader implications for the 2026 midterms. The dynamics in places like Pennsylvania’s Alleghenies and New Mexico, as well as the incumbent’s recent controversies in Mississippi’s 2nd District, make these contests worth watching closely.
While the 2024 election cycle may still dominate the headlines, it’s prudent for political strategists to already be analyzing potential battlegrounds for the 2026 midterms. These less high-profile races can sometimes end up having significant national impact.
The sleeper races highlighted in this article are an important reminder that the political landscape can shift rapidly, even in districts that have long been considered safe for one party. I’ll be following these contests closely over the next few years.
With the 2024 elections still fresh, it’s smart for political strategists to already be analyzing the potential battlegrounds for 2026. These less high-profile races can sometimes have significant national implications.
The article’s focus on unexpected congressional races that could shake up the 2026 landscape is a good reminder that the political landscape can shift in surprising ways. I’ll be following these sleeper contests with interest, particularly the dynamics in mining/energy-focused districts like Pennsylvania’s Alleghenies and New Mexico.
With the 2024 elections still fresh, it’s smart for strategists to already be looking ahead to potential battlegrounds for the 2026 midterms. These lesser-known races could end up having significant national implications, so they’re worth watching closely.