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Thanksgiving meal prices have become a hot topic as the holiday approaches, particularly with grocery costs running 2.7% higher than last year. Recent claims by President Donald Trump regarding a 25% decrease in Thanksgiving dinner costs have drawn scrutiny from economic analysts and fact-checkers.
During a news conference with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on Friday, Trump stated, “I just saw that Walmart came out with a statement last night, they’ve done it for many years, that Thanksgiving this year will cost 25% less than Thanksgiving last year.” The claim appears to reference Walmart’s annual Thanksgiving meal basket promotion.
However, economic experts point out that this comparison is misleading. While Walmart’s 2025 meal basket does indeed cost about 25% less than last year’s offering, the reduction comes from significant changes to the basket’s contents rather than from falling food prices.
“It’s not apples to apples, right?” explained David Anderson, a livestock economist at Texas A&M University. “What this does highlight is individual retailers’ strategies for getting customers in the door.”
The 2025 Walmart basket, priced under $40, feeds 10 people at roughly $4 per person. Last year’s basket cost approximately $56 for eight people, or about $7 per person. While this represents a significant per-person savings, the comparison overlooks substantial differences in what customers receive.
This year’s basket contains just 15 items compared to last year’s 29, eliminating numerous dessert items including pecan pie, mini marshmallows, and muffin mix. Also missing are savory staples like sweet potatoes, yellow onions, and celery stalks that were included in the 2024 basket.
Product substitutions further complicate comparisons. The 2025 basket replaces sweet Hawaiian rolls with standard dinner rolls from Walmart’s store brand and substitutes Kinder’s crispy fried onions for French’s. Even the centerpiece turkey differs, with a standard 13.5-pound bird this year versus a range of 10-16 pounds in 2024.
“They’re marketing it that ‘hey, this is a more affordable way,’ yet that implies that ‘man, stuff’s a lot more expensive,'” Anderson noted. “I guess it’s good marketing.”
The White House has highlighted similar promotions at other retailers, including Lidl, Aldi, Target, and Schnucks. Target’s four-person meal remains priced at under $20, similar to last year, but with substantial product substitutions. Schnucks is offering its lowest price on a frozen store-brand turkey in over 15 years, while Lidl and Aldi have also promoted cost reductions compared to 2024.
A more comprehensive analysis comes from a recent Wells Fargo report, which indicates the cost of a 10-person Thanksgiving meal has fallen by 2% to 3% since 2024, depending partly on whether consumers choose name brands or store labels.
Turkey prices remain a particular concern for economists. Purdue University’s College of Agriculture recently reported that wholesale turkey prices have surged 75% since October 2024, with retail prices up 25% from a year ago. The American Farm Bureau Federation found wholesale turkey prices have increased about 40%.
Despite these broader market trends, consumers may still find deals at major retailers. Anderson explained that companies like Walmart, which contract their turkey supplies well in advance, can offer promotional pricing that doesn’t reflect current market conditions.
“That gives them the flexibility to run those types of specials,” he said.
As Thanksgiving approaches, budget-conscious shoppers may find relief in these retail promotions, though the overall picture of holiday meal costs remains more complex than simplified claims suggest.
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11 Comments
The comparison of Walmart’s meal basket to last year is misleading, as the contents have changed. It’s important to look at the bigger picture of overall food inflation, which remains elevated. Caution is warranted with such claims.
This highlights the importance of fact-checking and understanding the nuances behind price claims. While the Walmart meal basket may be cheaper, that doesn’t tell the full story about the state of food prices. We need to be informed consumers.
Interesting how Walmart’s Thanksgiving meal basket promotion is being used to make misleading claims about overall food price changes. Retailers often use strategic pricing for holiday meals to attract customers.
It’s important to look beyond the headline numbers and understand the full context. The 25% reduction in Walmart’s meal basket is due to changes in contents, not an across-the-board drop in food prices.
Exactly, the comparison is not apples to apples. Retailers have their own marketing tactics, which don’t always reflect the broader economic picture.
It’s concerning to see politicians making claims about prices that don’t hold up under scrutiny. As consumers, we need to be vigilant and look beyond the surface-level rhetoric to understand the true situation.
It’s concerning to see politicians making claims about price changes that don’t hold up under scrutiny. As consumers, we need to be critical and look beyond the surface-level rhetoric to understand the true economic situation.
The comparison of Walmart’s meal basket to last year is not a true reflection of the broader trends in food prices. It’s important to look at the bigger picture and not get caught up in potentially misleading claims.
This is a good example of how statistics can be used to spin a narrative. While the Walmart meal basket is cheaper, that doesn’t necessarily reflect the broader trend in food prices. We need to be critical consumers of information.
This is a good example of how selective data can be used to paint a misleading picture. While the Walmart meal basket may be cheaper, the overall inflation in grocery costs is still a significant concern for many households.
Fact-checking these types of claims is crucial. While the Walmart meal basket may be cheaper, the overall inflation in grocery costs is still running high. We need to be cautious about misleading statements.