GOP House Majority Set to Shrink Further After Texas Special Election

Republicans are clinging to a razor-thin 218-213 House majority that will narrow even further after this weekend’s special congressional election in Texas’ 18th Congressional District.

The special election, scheduled for Saturday, features two Democratic candidates vying to fill the seat left vacant when Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner died last March. Turner, a former longtime state lawmaker who served two terms as Houston mayor, had succeeded the late Democratic Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee in Congress.

Democrats Christian Menefee, a former attorney for Houston’s Harris County, and former Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards emerged as the top two finishers in a field of 16 candidates during the initial election in November. The district, which encompasses downtown Houston and surrounding areas, is strongly Democratic-leaning, ensuring the GOP majority will shrink by one seat regardless of which candidate prevails.

The special election will use Texas’ current congressional district lines, despite the state having redrawn its maps for the 2026 midterms as part of the high-stakes nationwide redistricting battle between President Donald Trump and Republicans versus Democrats.

House Republican leadership is clearly concerned about their dwindling numbers. Speaker Mike Johnson recently implored his members to maintain perfect attendance, telling them, “I told everybody, and not in jest, I said, no adventure sports, no risk-taking, take your vitamins. Stay healthy and be here.”

House Majority Whip Tom Emmer’s office has reinforced this message, confirming it is advising members that “outside of life-and-death circumstances,” Republican lawmakers are expected to be physically present on Capitol Hill for votes.

This Texas contest is just one of four special congressional elections scheduled this year that could further reshape the narrow House majority.

In New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District, eleven candidates are competing in the February 5 Democratic primary for the seat vacated by Mikie Sherrill, who stepped down after winning November’s gubernatorial election. The Democratic primary winner will face Republican Randolph Mayor Joe Hathaway in the April 16 special election.

While the suburban northern New Jersey district leans Democratic — Sherrill won reelection in 2024 by 15 points — Republicans see potential opportunity as then-Vice President Kamala Harris carried the district by just eight points in the 2024 presidential election.

Georgia’s 14th Congressional District has attracted a crowded field of 22 candidates, including 17 Republicans, in the race to succeed former GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. The MAGA firebrand and one-time top Trump House ally resigned from Congress four weeks ago, a year before her term ended.

Under Georgia law, all candidates will appear on the same ballot, with a runoff between the top two finishers on April 7 if no candidate exceeds 50% of the vote. The northwestern Georgia district is solidly Republican territory, with Greene winning reelection in 2024 by nearly 30 points and Trump carrying it by 37 points.

California will hold a primary on June 2 for the special election in the state’s 1st Congressional District, following the unexpected death of Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa. The general election is scheduled for August 4 in this solidly Republican northeastern California district.

Like Texas, California is altering its congressional maps as part of nationwide redistricting efforts, but the special election will use current district boundaries.

The timing of these special elections has become politically contentious, with the White House and congressional Republicans criticizing Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom’s decision to schedule the California special election six months after LaMalfa’s death. Democrats had similarly complained when Republican Governor Greg Abbott of Texas waited eight months after Turner’s death to schedule that special election.

As these vacancies are filled throughout the year, the thin Republican majority will face increasing pressure, potentially complicating legislative efforts and giving House Democratic leadership hope for gaining control before the 2026 midterms.