Control of the House is at the center of midterms. These charts help explain the fight

Donald Trump is taking an active role in Republican efforts to maintain their narrow House majority in the upcoming midterm elections, determined to avoid the losses his party suffered during his first term when Democrats took control and subsequently impeached him twice.

The former president has immersed himself in candidate recruitment, offering strategic advice, and publicly vowing that history will not repeat itself. However, despite Trump’s involvement, significant challenges remain for Republicans as they face historical trends that typically favor the opposition party in midterm elections.

Democrats, encouraged by their strong performance in several special elections throughout 2025, appear eager for Trump to remain the Republican standard-bearer. Yet they must also address their own vulnerabilities with voters, particularly among growing numbers of independents who could determine the outcome in competitive districts.

While all 435 House seats will be contested, control of the chamber will ultimately be decided by a small subset of competitive races. Democrats have identified nearly 40 Republican-held districts as potential targets, while Republicans are focusing on flipping several dozen Democratic seats.

The historical trends present a formidable challenge for Trump’s party. Since 1932, the president’s party has lost an average of 26 House seats in midterm elections, with only three instances where the sitting president’s party gained ground. The most recent example was in 2002, when Republicans picked up seats in the first national elections after the September 11 attacks.

Every president since 1992, including Trump in 2018, has seen House control shift to the opposition party in their first midterm after taking office. This cycle also features an unusually high number of open seats, with dozens of House members announcing they will not seek reelection.

Democrats’ strong showing in 2025 elections across the country could signal trouble for Republicans. In House special elections last year, Democratic candidates consistently outperformed their 2024 presidential election results, often by double-digit margins. Similar patterns emerged in 2017 before Democrats’ 2018 midterm victories during Trump’s first term.

Trump’s approval rating remains a potential liability for Republicans. According to January polling from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, just 40% of Americans approved of Trump’s performance – a figure that has remained consistently low throughout his second term. Georgia Representative Brian Jack, the Republicans’ chief candidate recruiter, acknowledged that GOP candidates cannot afford to distance themselves from the president.

Historically, presidential approval ratings have largely correlated with midterm election performance. Further complicating matters for Republicans, a recent Gallup survey found that 45% of U.S. adults now identify as independents, with these voters increasingly driven by dissatisfaction with the party in power.

Economic concerns are expected to dominate campaign messaging. A December AP-NORC poll found that 40% of Americans cited health care costs as a top concern for government attention, roughly equal to immigration. About one-third mentioned general cost-of-living issues, while approximately 20% highlighted housing costs.

Democrats are emphasizing affordability across multiple sectors, arguing that while Trump won in 2024 largely due to inflation concerns, he has failed to resolve these problems. Trump has dismissed what he calls the affordability “hoax” while simultaneously urging Republicans to reach compromise on health insurance premium subsidies and promising populist action on housing costs.

Despite national narratives shaping the overall political environment, both parties maintain that individual candidates remain crucial in competitive districts. “It’s really district-by-district,” said Illinois Representative Lauren Underwood, a chief candidate recruiter for Democrats. “It’s not just going to be a narrative of ‘the suburbs reject Trump’ or something like that.”

The ongoing redistricting battles, spurred partly by Trump’s influence, could also impact the final outcome. Republicans appear to have improved their position by a handful of districts through the redistricting process, though several states are still finalizing their maps or facing legal challenges to their revisions.

If the Supreme Court weakens key provisions of the Voting Rights Act, Republican-controlled states could potentially eliminate Democratic advantages in districts where minority voters have significant influence. The final congressional map remains uncertain, potentially helping Republicans maintain their majority or limiting Democratic gains if voter discontent proves widespread.

As both parties prepare for the midterm battle, the combination of Trump’s involvement, historical trends, economic concerns, and redistricting maneuvers ensures that control of the House remains very much in play.