Listen to the article
Minnesota Special Elections to Determine House Control Amid Immigration Tensions
Two special elections taking place Tuesday in Minnesota’s Twin Cities area could shift the balance of power in the state House of Representatives for the third time in less than a year. The contests in heavily Democratic districts come at a politically charged moment, days after a U.S. Border Patrol agent fatally shot a man in Minneapolis, igniting protests and renewed calls for federal immigration officers to leave Minnesota.
Republicans currently hold a slim 67-65 advantage in the chamber after two Democratic representatives vacated their seats upon winning other offices in November. The legislative body has operated under a power-sharing agreement between the two parties for much of the past year.
The special elections occur against a backdrop of heightened tensions surrounding immigration enforcement in Minnesota. In addition to the recent Border Patrol shooting, an Immigration and Customs Enforcement officer killed a Minneapolis woman in early January as part of an ongoing federal immigration crackdown in the state.
In District 47A, east of St. Paul, Democrat Shelley Buck stands as the only candidate on the ballot, though voters can opt for a write-in candidate. Buck brings significant leadership experience as a former environmental nonprofit executive and past president of the Prairie Island Tribal Council. The district, which spans portions of Washington and Ramsey Counties, has shown strong Democratic leanings, with both former state Representative Amanda Hemmingsen-Jaeger and presidential candidate Kamala Harris winning approximately 61% of the vote in their respective 2024 races.
District 64A presents a contest between Democrat Meg Luger-Nikolai and Republican Dan Walsh. Luger-Nikolai is a labor attorney who has represented a statewide teachers union, while Walsh manages a real estate property management company with a background in cybersecurity and tech sales. Walsh previously ran unsuccessfully for this seat in both 2022 and 2024.
This district, entirely within Ramsey County between St. Paul and Minneapolis, represents even more favorable Democratic territory. Former state Representative Kaohly Her and Harris each captured more than 83% of the vote there in 2024. Her vacated the seat after being elected mayor of St. Paul earlier this year.
Political analysts expect both seats to remain in Democratic hands. With Buck running unopposed in District 47A, the Associated Press has indicated it will call that race as soon as polls close, barring any organized write-in effort. In District 64A, Walsh faces a steep uphill battle, needing to dramatically outperform his previous showings of approximately 15% in 2022 and 17% in 2024.
Minnesota’s election procedures do not provide for automatic recounts in state legislative races. However, candidates trailing by less than 0.5% of the total vote may request a publicly funded recount.
Each district has nearly 28,000 registered voters. In previous general elections, turnout ranged from 19,000 to 25,000 voters across these districts. Early voting has been modest so far, with roughly 300 ballots cast in District 47A and 400 in District 64A as of late last week.
Minnesota allows same-day voter registration at polling places, which could affect turnout. Polls will close at 8 p.m. local time (9 p.m. ET), with results expected to be released throughout the evening. Based on past elections, most votes should be counted and reported by midnight.
The outcome of these special elections will determine whether Democrats regain control of the Minnesota House, creating unified Democratic governance in the state, or if Republicans maintain their narrow majority. The results will shape Minnesota’s legislative agenda as lawmakers address ongoing concerns about immigration enforcement, public safety, and other pressing state issues.
Fact Checker
Verify the accuracy of this article using The Disinformation Commission analysis and real-time sources.
14 Comments
It’s interesting that these special elections are happening in heavily Democratic districts. I’ll be curious to see if the Republican candidates can make any inroads or if the Democratic nominees maintain their party’s traditional stronghold.
That’s a good question. The Republican strategy will be crucial – they’ll likely need to strike the right balance between appealing to their base while not alienating more moderate voters in these districts.
The power-sharing agreement in the state House has been an interesting dynamic. I wonder if the outcome of these elections will lead to a more stable partisan split or if we could see a shift in the balance of power.
Yes, the power-sharing has been a unique arrangement. These elections could potentially upset that and create a clearer partisan majority one way or the other.
This will be an interesting election to watch, with the immigration tensions adding an extra layer of complexity. I’m curious to see how voters in these districts respond to the candidates’ positions on this issue.
Absolutely, the immigration topic is highly polarized right now. It will be telling to see if it plays a major role in how these special elections shake out.
The demographic makeup of these districts will likely play a big role. I’m curious to see if the candidates are able to effectively mobilize their respective bases or if there’s potential for some crossover voting.
That’s a good point. The specific constituency in each district will be crucial in determining the outcome. Turnout and enthusiasm among key voter groups will be key.
I’m glad to see the media coverage highlighting the immigration tensions in Minnesota as a key context for these elections. That issue is so divisive right now, and it will be fascinating to see how it shapes the campaigns and voter turnout.
Definitely. Immigration is such a hot-button topic, and it will be interesting to see if it ends up being a driving force for voters in these districts.
These special elections will be an important test for both parties in Minnesota. I’ll be watching closely to see if they can offer voters clear, compelling visions on the key issues facing the state.
Absolutely. With the state House control hanging in the balance, both parties will need to articulate their platforms effectively to sway undecided voters.
The balance of power in the state House is really hanging in the balance here. I wonder if the recent Border Patrol shooting will motivate more voters to turn out and make their voices heard.
Good point. Emotions are running high, and that could drive higher turnout, especially among those concerned about immigration enforcement tactics.