Geoeconomic Confrontation Named Top Global Risk for 2026, Says World Economic Forum

In a world beset by rising tensions, geoeconomic confrontation has emerged as the most serious global risk for the next two years, according to the World Economic Forum’s newly released Global Risks Report 2026. The report, published Wednesday, highlights how geopolitical and economic frictions are intensifying within an increasingly competitive international landscape.

The findings reveal a significant shift in global threat perception, with economic warfare between nations now outranking other pressing concerns. This development comes amid escalating trade disputes, sanctions regimes, and strategic competition between major powers, particularly between Western nations and China, as well as ongoing fallout from the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

In its short-term risk assessment, the WEF report places geoeconomic confrontation at the top, followed by misinformation and disinformation, which has become more prevalent with the rise of social media and increasingly sophisticated manipulation techniques. Societal polarization ranks third, reflecting growing divisions within countries around political, cultural, and economic issues.

Extreme weather events take fourth place among short-term concerns, highlighting that climate change impacts are no longer viewed as merely distant threats but immediate challenges. State-based armed conflict rounds out the top five, underscoring ongoing geopolitical instability in multiple regions.

Other significant short-term risks include cyber insecurity, inequality, erosion of human rights, pollution, and involuntary migration—issues that reflect the interconnected nature of contemporary global challenges.

When extending the outlook to a decade, environmental concerns dominate the risk landscape. Extreme weather events claim the top spot as the most severe long-term risk, followed by biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse. Critical changes to Earth systems—referring to fundamental alterations in the planet’s regulatory mechanisms—rank fourth, demonstrating growing concern about irreversible environmental damage.

Despite the longer time horizon, misinformation and disinformation remain prominent, ranking fourth among long-term risks. This persistence suggests experts believe the information integrity crisis will not be quickly resolved. The fifth position goes to potential adverse outcomes of artificial intelligence technologies, reflecting anxiety about AI’s rapidly advancing capabilities and uncertain impacts.

The report paints a pessimistic picture of global sentiment. Half of the respondents surveyed expect a “turbulent” or “stormy” global outlook over the next two years. Only one percent anticipate “calm” conditions—a strikingly small proportion that underscores widespread concern about international stability. The long-term outlook appears even bleaker, with 57 percent forecasting a turbulent or stormy world over the next decade.

This pessimism reflects multiple converging crises: ongoing armed conflicts, trade tensions between major economies, supply chain vulnerabilities exposed during the pandemic, and increasingly visible climate change impacts. The findings suggest that global leaders are preparing for a protracted period of instability rather than a quick return to the relative stability of previous decades.

For businesses and policymakers, the report serves as a critical planning tool, highlighting areas requiring urgent attention and investment. The elevated position of geoeconomic confrontation signals the need for robust contingency planning around trade disruptions, technology restrictions, and financial system fragmentation.

The WEF’s Global Risks Report has become an influential barometer of elite opinion, drawing on surveys of business leaders, government officials, academics, and civil society representatives worldwide. This latest edition suggests a world increasingly concerned about economic weaponization, environmental tipping points, and technological risks—challenges that will require unprecedented international cooperation despite the very geopolitical tensions making such collaboration difficult.