Midterm Elections Begin as U.S. Navigates Electoral Trust Challenges

Early voting has commenced across the United States for midterm primaries in key states that could determine which party controls Congress. Meanwhile, claims of election fraud continue to circulate in political discourse despite being repeatedly debunked by independent researchers and election officials.

The persistence of voter fraud beliefs predates the current era of heightened political polarization, according to studies dating back to 2008. Recent social science research has begun to unpack what fuels these election misconceptions and how setting proper expectations could help restore public trust in the electoral process.

A comprehensive study examining U.S. elections from 1996 to 2020 investigated whether unexpected outcomes affected perceptions of electoral integrity. Researchers found that surprising results historically didn’t significantly undermine voter trust—with one notable exception.

The 2020 presidential election marked a dramatic departure from this pattern. When Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump, there was a measurable decline in confidence in the vote-counting process. This erosion of trust wasn’t limited to Trump supporters but extended to independents and even some Biden voters, suggesting the “rigged election” narrative had broadly damaged public confidence.

Psychologists attribute this phenomenon to the expectancy-disconfirmation model, which explains how we become psychologically destabilized when outcomes differ significantly from our expectations. What distinguished 2020, according to researcher Mongrain, was the deliberate pre-election narrative that simultaneously set two contradictory expectations: a predicted Trump landslide and claims that any Biden victory would prove systemic fraud.

“This framing created a situation where nearly any outcome could confirm conspiracy beliefs,” explained election psychology experts. “That’s why proactive expectation-setting based on accurate information is critical before results are announced.”

One particular misconception that experts highlight is the expectation that election results should be finalized on election night. In reality, many states cannot begin counting votes until Election Day, and with the increasing popularity of early voting, tallying all ballots inevitably takes time.

The Center for Civic Design, which partners with organizations including the National Science Foundation, has emphasized the importance of managing these expectations. Their research before the 2020 presidential election found that just over half of voters expected final results by the Friday after Election Day—a timeline that proved unrealistic in many contested states.

To combat misinformation, the Center recommends that officials and community leaders maintain calm communication, repeat simple factual talking points, emphasize evidence of election security, and provide transparent, regular updates on vote-counting timelines.

“Don’t repeat misinformation or even mention fraud claims that have been consistently debunked,” advise election integrity experts. “Simply share accurate facts about the process.”

Research indicates that social norms and expectations can either undermine or strengthen democratic processes. When harnessed appropriately, these psychological factors can promote voting participation and foster understanding of vote-counting procedures for the upcoming elections.

Previous studies have shown that fact-checking is generally welcomed by the public, contrary to the belief that corrections are resented. However, experts caution against repeating false claims even when attempting to debunk them, as repetition can inadvertently reinforce misinformation.

Several nonpartisan organizations have developed resources to help manage election expectations through social media and community outreach. These include ready-to-share graphics from electoral integrity coalitions and social media toolkits designed for election officials but useful for broader public education.

As the United States moves through primary season toward the next major electoral cycle, setting accurate voter expectations has become increasingly crucial for maintaining public confidence in democratic institutions. Psychological research suggests that transparent communication about electoral processes before voting begins remains one of the most effective safeguards against the spread of election misinformation.