US Midterm Elections Begin Amid Lingering Election Fraud Claims

Midterm elections are underway across the United States, with primary contests in key states that could ultimately determine which political party controls Congress. Meanwhile, the current administration continues to repeat claims of election fraud—allegations that have been thoroughly debunked by numerous investigations and studies.

The persistence of voter fraud beliefs is not new to American politics. Research has shown that such beliefs were widespread even before the current era of heightened political division, according to studies by Ansolabehere and Persily from 2008. Social scientists have been investigating what fuels these misconceptions and exploring how properly setting public expectations about electoral processes might help reduce false beliefs.

Recent research examining U.S. elections from 1996 to 2020 sought to determine whether unexpected outcomes affected voter perceptions of fraud. The study, conducted by Mongrain in 2023, asked whether surprising results made voters suspicious of the electoral process, and if such questioning occurred among supporters of both winning and losing candidates.

The findings revealed that unexpected outcomes generally didn’t dramatically affect voter trust—with one notable exception. Following the 2020 presidential election, when Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump, there was a significant decline in voter confidence. This diminished trust was most pronounced among Trump supporters but extended to independents and even some Biden voters, suggesting the “rigged election” narrative damaged public confidence across the political spectrum.

The researcher points to the expectancy-disconfirmation model as a possible explanation for this phenomenon. This psychological theory holds that people notice when outcomes contradict their expectations, and the larger the gap between expectation and reality, the more psychologically destabilizing the result becomes.

What made 2020 unique, according to Mongrain, was the deliberate and sustained fraud narrative pushed before and after the election. Candidate Trump established two conflicting expectations: that he would win decisively, and that a Biden victory would indicate a rigged system. This framing created conditions where almost any outcome could be interpreted as confirming conspiracy theories.

Psychological science not only explains why unexpected outcomes can be unsettling but also offers tools to rebuild trust in the electoral process. One common misunderstanding concerns election night results. Many voters expect that outcomes reported on election night will remain unchanged, but elections are frequently not finalized until days or even weeks later.

Social psychologists suggest leveraging social norms to adjust these expectations. For example, explaining that many states cannot begin counting votes until Election Day—and with record numbers of early and mail-in ballots, counting inevitably takes time—can help prepare the public for a potentially extended process.

The Center for Civic Design, which collaborates with organizations including the National Science Foundation, has emphasized the importance of setting realistic expectations about election timelines. Prior to the 2020 presidential election, they found just over half of voters expected final results by the Friday following Election Day. They recommended that officials and community leaders:

• Maintain calm communication
• Consistently repeat simple, accurate information
• Emphasize evidence of election security without repeating misinformation
• Provide transparent, frequent updates about result timelines

Conspiracy theories can undermine democratic processes when left unchecked. However, a scientific approach that harnesses social norms to promote voting and educate the public about vote-counting procedures can strengthen democratic institutions ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

Previous research has demonstrated the power of social norms, particularly those expressed through social media. Studies have also shown that fact-checking is generally welcomed by audiences. Experts recommend directly sharing accurate information rather than repeating false claims, as the repetition of misinformation—even when attempting to debunk it—can inadvertently reinforce it.

Several nonpartisan organizations have created resources to help manage election expectations. These include social-media-ready graphics from a coalition of nonpartisan groups and a 2024 social media toolkit for election officials that contains valuable information for the general public.