Medieval Literary Confusion Reshapes Black Death History, New Study Reveals

Misinformation about disease outbreaks isn’t just a modern phenomenon tied to COVID-19. According to new research, even our understanding of the Black Death—one of history’s most devastating pandemics—has been fundamentally shaped by a misinterpreted literary work for centuries.

Historians at the University of Exeter have uncovered evidence that challenges long-held beliefs about how quickly bubonic plague spread across medieval Eurasia. Their findings, published in the Journal of Arabic and Islamic Studies, suggest that what many experts call the “Quick Transit Theory” stems from a critical historical error—the misreading of a fictional trickster tale as factual documentation.

“All roads to the factually incorrect description of the spread of the plague lead back to this one text. It’s like it is in the center of a spider’s web of the myths about how the Black Death moved across the region,” explained University of Exeter historian Nahyan Fancy in a statement accompanying the study.

The conventional narrative holds that the Black Death originated in China before rapidly traveling westward via the Silk Road in just a few years, reaching the Black Sea region by the 1340s. While recent palaeogenetic research has shifted the origin point to central Asia, the belief in its rapid movement remained largely unchallenged.

Remarkably, this timeline wasn’t derived from genetic records or multiple contemporary sources. Instead, it originated from a single literary work titled “Risālat al-nabaʾ ʿan al-wabāʾ” (“An Essay on the Report of the Pestilence”), written by poet-historian Ibn al-Wardi around 1348 CE in Aleppo, Syria.

The researchers identified this work as a maqāma, a specific genre of Arabic literature that emerged in the late 10th century and peaked in popularity two centuries later. These narratives centered on fictional itinerant tricksters and their misadventures, written to be performed aloud in a single sitting. By the 14th century, literate mamluk warriors particularly enjoyed these entertaining tales.

Ibn al-Wardi’s maqāma depicts a wandering troublemaker on a 15-year journey beginning somewhere beyond China, then moving through China, India, central Asia, Persia, and finally reaching the Black Sea and Mediterranean regions. The character leaves chaos in his wake at each location.

The critical misunderstanding occurred in the 15th century, when historians began interpreting the trickster as a metaphorical embodiment of the plague itself and the narrative as a factual account of the disease’s progression. This interpretation was subsequently adopted by European chroniclers and eventually became entrenched in mainstream historical understanding.

“The text was written just to highlight the fact the plague traveled and tricked people. It should not be taken literally,” Fancy emphasized.

This revelation doesn’t diminish the maqāma’s historical value. Instead, it repositions it as a cultural artifact reflecting how medieval societies processed collective trauma through creative expression.

“These maqāmas may not give us accurate information about how the Black Death spread. But the texts are phenomenal because they help us see how people at the time were living with this awful crisis,” noted Fancy.

The study opens new avenues for plague research, suggesting historians should reexamine other major regional outbreaks, including Damascus in 1258 CE and Kaifeng, China in 1232-1233, to construct a more accurate timeline of the disease’s spread across Eurasia.

This historical misreading demonstrates the enduring challenge of separating fact from fiction in our understanding of past events. It also highlights remarkable parallels between medieval and modern responses to public health crises.

“These writings can help us understand how creativity may have been a way to exercise some control and served as a coping mechanism at this time of widespread death, similar to the way people developed new culinary skills or artistic skills during the COVID-19 pandemic,” Fancy concluded.

The study serves as a powerful reminder that even centuries-old historical narratives require continuous reexamination as new evidence and analytical approaches emerge.