AI’s Impact on Elections Expected to Intensify Next Year, Report Warns

After a year marked by several experimental uses of artificial intelligence in political campaigning, experts are warning that AI-driven misinformation could become a significant threat in the upcoming 2026 midterm elections.

The 2025 off-year elections saw multiple candidates employing AI in controversial ways. In Virginia, Republican lieutenant governor candidate John Reid staged a debate with an AI-generated version of his Democratic opponent Ghazala Hashmi after she declined his debate requests. Hashmi ultimately won the race despite this unusual tactic.

In New York, former Governor Andrew Cuomo briefly published and then removed a deepfake advertisement targeting his opponent Zohran Mamdani with racist stereotypes. Mamdani went on to win the New York City mayoral race despite this incident.

Utah’s Lieutenant Governor Deirdre Henderson also confronted AI misuse when she warned voters about fake election results circulating online before polls had even closed.

“We’ve only seen the tip of the iceberg when it comes to AI’s impact on elections,” said Isabel Linzer, a policy analyst at the Center for Democracy and Technology (CDT). “The tech is getting better and politicians—and bad actors—are getting more comfortable using it. Anyone who thought the danger had passed after last year’s U.S. election avoided any major AI incidents needs to wake up.”

State legislatures have been actively responding to these emerging threats. According to the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), 26 states have already enacted laws regulating political deepfakes, either banning them outright or requiring clear disclosure when such content is used in campaigns.

Chelsea Canada, a program principal at NCSL, identified regulating deepfakes as a “huge trend” at the state level. Speaking at the National Association of State Chief Information Officers’ annual conference in Denver earlier this year, she noted that lawmakers are increasingly focused on both immediate concerns and potential long-term effects of AI in elections.

Recent research from CDT highlighted multiple risks associated with generative AI in political campaigns, including the amplification of disinformation, facilitated foreign interference, and automated voter suppression. While the technology offers potential benefits for data analysis, drafting communications, and debate preparation, researchers warn the risks significantly outweigh these advantages.

Tim Harper, CDT’s senior policy analyst for elections and democracy and co-author of the report, explained that self-regulation based on anticipated voter backlash was the primary constraint on AI misuse in 2024. “What we’re seeing is that those norms, those self-imposed beliefs that voters would penalize candidates are crumbling,” Harper said.

He pointed to various AI-generated videos shared by the White House and former President Donald Trump on social media, including content that denigrated protesters and political opponents. While some condemned these materials, the response has been far from universal.

The regulatory approach has focused primarily on transparency rather than prohibition. Harper emphasized that legal frameworks represent just one piece of a complex puzzle: “It’s not purely a question of law, but also a question of building societal resilience.”

Harper also noted that relying on campaigns to exercise good judgment presents challenges, as the incentives for provocative content remain strong while disincentives are diminishing. Social media and AI companies could potentially intervene, but Harper observed that “the political incentives for the companies to act in this space are not strong right now.”

With high-profile gubernatorial races on the horizon in 2026, concerns about AI-driven deception continue to grow. As the guardrails of self-restraint weaken and regulatory frameworks focus primarily on disclosure rather than prevention, experts predict an escalation of AI misuse in political campaigns.

“The norms that we saw in 2024 definitely are beginning to erode, and that’s happening in a bipartisan way right now,” Harper concluded. “We expect this to continue to escalate into 2026.”