Venezuelan Opposition Leader Faces Criticism Over Claims About Maduro Regime

As the Trump administration contemplates using military force to remove President Nicolás Maduro from power in Venezuela, opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has come under increasing scrutiny for allegedly promoting exaggerated claims to justify U.S. intervention.

Machado, who received the Nobel Peace Prize in October and serves as the de facto leader of Venezuela’s opposition, has recently amplified contentious assertions about President Maduro, including debunked claims that his government manipulated U.S. elections.

“I have no doubt that Nicolás Maduro, Jorge Rodríguez and many others are the masterminds of a system that has rigged elections in many countries, including the U.S.,” Machado told Bloomberg News, referring to Venezuela’s president and the head of its National Assembly.

Former diplomats and even some critics of the Maduro regime have expressed concern that such statements echo the misleading intelligence that led to the 2003 Iraq invasion, with potentially devastating consequences.

“It’s time to summon the ghost of Ahmad Chalabi,” said John D. Feeley, former U.S. ambassador to Panama, referring to the Iraqi politician who provided false information about weapons of mass destruction to justify the Iraq War. “It’s unbelievable how these guys are too stupid to read their own history and know that they’re headed for the same thing.”

Machado and other opposition figures have also claimed that Maduro simultaneously leads two distinct drug-trafficking organizations that threaten U.S. national security: Tren de Aragua and Cartel de los Soles. The Trump administration has designated both as terrorist organizations and has used these designations to justify military strikes on vessels suspected of drug trafficking, resulting in at least 83 deaths since September.

However, U.S. intelligence agencies, experts on Latin American drug trafficking, and even some Venezuelan opposition figures dispute these characterizations. They question whether these organizations function as transnational cartels and whether Maduro exercises direct control over them.

Henrique Capriles, a former opposition presidential candidate who ran against Maduro in 2013, called the notion that Maduro controls Tren de Aragua “science fiction.” While acknowledging corruption and criminality within Venezuela’s government, experts note that the reality is more complex than the narrative being promoted.

Drug trade specialists point out that Tren de Aragua originated in a Venezuelan prison and is believed to be led by escapee Hector Rusthenford Guerrero Flores, not Maduro. American intelligence agencies reportedly circulated findings in February indicating the gang operates independently from government control.

Similarly, experts describe Cartel de los Soles not as a formal organization but as shorthand for drug trafficking within Venezuela’s armed forces – a phenomenon not unique to Venezuela but common across various countries in the Americas.

The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration has found that less than 10 percent of cocaine reaching the United States from South America flows through Venezuela. Mexico, not Venezuela, produces fentanyl, the primary driver of overdose deaths in the United States.

Despite these nuances, Machado has continued to promote a simplified narrative. “Everybody knows that Venezuela is today the main channel of cocaine, and that this is a business that has been run by Maduro,” she told CNN. “The regime has turned Cartel de los Soles into one of the most powerful criminal structures all along this continent and other continents as well.”

David Smolansky, who represents Machado in Washington, defended these claims: “These designations mean the Maduro regime is now like the Taliban, the only government in full exercise of power recognized as a terrorist organization.”

Many experts share the opposition’s criticism of Maduro’s authoritarian rule, which has triggered one of the world’s worst economic collapses in modern times and forced millions of Venezuelans to flee their country. During this exodus, criminal groups like Tren de Aragua have expanded throughout the region, often victimizing fellow Venezuelan migrants through extortion and human smuggling.

However, critics worry that Machado’s alignment with Trump supporters’ election fraud conspiracies and her portrayal of Venezuela as a national security threat to the United States represent a calculated strategy to gain favor with the incoming administration.

“She’s saying our problem is actually your problem because it’s a national security issue for you,” explained David Smilde, a Venezuela expert at Tulane University. “This can fit into existing agendas in D.C. and provide an extra emphasis to citizens who are not specialists in Venezuela.”

As the situation develops, the international community watches closely, mindful of the devastating consequences that followed previous U.S. military interventions based on flawed intelligence and exaggerated threats.