Study Misinterpretation: RFK Jr. and Trump’s False Claims Linking Circumcision to Autism

In a move that has surprised medical experts and researchers alike, Health Secretary RFK Jr. claimed during a recent Cabinet meeting that “children who are circumcised early have double the rate of autism,” suggesting Tylenol as the likely culprit. President Trump supported the statement, citing “a tremendous amount of proof or evidence.”

The claim appears to reference two studies with significant limitations. A 2015 Danish registry study found a modest statistical increase in autism diagnoses among circumcised boys but never mentioned Tylenol or pain medications in its findings. The study’s authors emphasized major limitations in their research, including incomplete data and inability to prove causation. A separate 2013 paper used circumcision rates merely as a proxy for acetaminophen exposure and was described by its own authors as “hypothesis-generating,” not conclusive evidence.

Medical experts point out that Kennedy’s argument makes a fundamental logical error by connecting these disparate points without evidence. The claim that circumcision leads to Tylenol use which causes autism represents correlation being mistaken for causation – similar to concluding umbrellas cause car accidents because both increase during rainy weather.

This latest statement follows a September 22 press conference where the administration urged pregnant women to “tough it out” and avoid Tylenol, citing an alleged link to autism. The researchers whose work was referenced have publicly stated that’s not what their studies demonstrate.

At the center of the administration’s claims is a review of 46 studies published in August. While 27 studies reported some association between acetaminophen and neurodevelopmental issues, the review’s lead author, Dr. Didier Prada, has explicitly clarified: “We cannot answer the question about causation—that is very important to clarify.”

Medical researchers point out several methodological concerns with how the evidence has been presented. The review relied on the Navigation Guide, a framework designed for environmental toxins rather than medications, potentially inflating weak associations into seemingly stronger findings. Critics also note the review couldn’t combine studies into a traditional meta-analysis due to inconsistent measurement approaches, instead simply tallying positive versus negative results regardless of study quality or size.

The most compelling evidence contradicting these claims comes from a massive Swedish study tracking 2.5 million births over two decades, including 186,000 pregnancies with acetaminophen exposure. While initial population-wide analysis showed a slight 5% increased risk, this association disappeared completely when researchers compared siblings – one exposed to acetaminophen during pregnancy and one not. This sibling comparison method helps control for shared genetic and environmental factors that might otherwise confound results.

Medical organizations have responded with concern about the potential public health implications of discouraging acetaminophen use during pregnancy. The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists reaffirmed in September that “acetaminophen remains the analgesic and antipyretic of choice during pregnancy” when used appropriately.

Healthcare providers worry about the consequences of pregnant women avoiding medication entirely. Untreated fever during early pregnancy nearly doubles the risk of neural tube defects and is linked to heart defects and oral clefts – risks based on established medical evidence. With limited safe alternatives available (NSAIDs like ibuprofen are contraindicated, aspirin carries bleeding risks, and opioids bring obvious concerns), medical professionals fear creating panic about acetaminophen could cause preventable harm.

The timeline of acetaminophen use versus autism diagnoses also raises questions about the causation theory. Tylenol entered U.S. markets in 1955, more than a decade after autism was first described. If acetaminophen were a major causal factor, experts suggest we would have seen a surge in autism rates during the 1960s-70s as usage became widespread. Instead, recorded autism increases aligned with changes in diagnostic criteria in the 1990s.

For pregnant women concerned about these claims, scientists emphasize that the evidence shows no causal link between acetaminophen and autism. While no study can prove with absolute certainty that a medication never affects development, the best available evidence suggests acetaminophen use during pregnancy doesn’t meaningfully increase autism risk for the vast majority of people when used as directed.

Public health experts caution that transforming scientific uncertainty into definitive warnings may cause more harm than good, potentially leading pregnant women to endure treatable pain and fever based on conclusions not supported by the overall body of scientific evidence.