Fact Check: Trump Makes Inaccurate Statements About Poll Performance

President Trump’s false claims about poll numbers draw scrutiny amid third-term comments

President Donald Trump made accurate statements about constitutional limits on presidential terms Tuesday, but paired them with dramatically inflated claims about his current popularity among American voters, according to a CNN fact check.

When asked about potentially running for a third term – something explicitly prohibited by the Constitution – Trump correctly acknowledged, “If you read it, it’s pretty clear I’m not allowed to run.” However, he then made two assertions about his polling numbers that data shows to be demonstrably false.

“I have my highest poll numbers that I’ve ever had,” Trump claimed, adding, “I have the best numbers for any president in many years – any president.”

Multiple polling averages reveal that Trump’s approval ratings have actually declined substantially since the beginning of his second term in January. According to the New York Times polling average, Trump’s net approval stood at negative-11 points on Tuesday, with 43% approving and 54% disapproving. This represents a dramatic 20-point net decline from the first week of his term, when he enjoyed positive-9 points (52% approval versus 43% disapproval).

CNN’s Poll of Polls average shows an even more concerning picture for the president, placing his net approval at negative-15 points (41% approval, 56% disapproval), down 14 points from early February.

Other respected polling aggregators tell the same story. G. Elliott Morris, co-founder of FiftyPlusOne.news, calculated Trump’s net approval at approximately negative-14 points, representing a steep 26-point decline since the term began. Data journalist Nate Silver’s model showed Trump at negative-10 points, down about 22 points from January.

While Trump maintains strong support within his own party – often around 90% approval among Republicans – he made no indication he was referring specifically to partisan numbers. Even among Republicans, his current approval is not at a personal record high.

The president’s claim of having “the best numbers for any president in many years” is even more starkly at odds with historical data. Recent predecessors reached far higher approval peaks – Barack Obama hit 69% approval early in his first term, while George W. Bush soared to 90% following the September 11 attacks. Even Joe Biden, who struggled with poor ratings through much of his presidency, reached 57% approval twice in 2021.

Trump’s assertion fails even when comparing him to presidents at the equivalent point in their terms. According to Silver’s historical tracking, every president elected after World War II had better poll numbers than Trump at the comparable date in their first terms. Obama had positive-9 net approval, George W. Bush positive-76, Bill Clinton positive-2, George H.W. Bush positive-38, Ronald Reagan positive-20, Jimmy Carter positive-24, Richard Nixon positive-27, John F. Kennedy positive-65, Dwight D. Eisenhower positive-45, and Harry Truman positive-41.

The White House did not respond to CNN’s request for comment on the discrepancy between the president’s claims and the polling data.

While Trump could argue he’s in a non-consecutive second term rather than a first term, that context doesn’t salvage his claim. Gallup’s quarterly presidential approval tracking shows that in the third quarter of his second term (July 20 through October 19), Trump had lower average approval than any president elected to two terms since at least Eisenhower in the 1950s, with Nixon being the sole exception.

The president’s polling claims come amid broader discussions about term limits and constitutional constraints on presidential power as the administration approaches its midway point.