Analysis: Trump Repeatedly Claims ‘Nobody Knew’ Facts That Were Widely Understood

In a pattern that has become increasingly familiar, former President Donald Trump has once again employed his rhetorical strategy of claiming “nobody” expected events that were, in fact, widely anticipated by experts and officials. This time, his assertions concern Iran’s military response to attacks by the U.S. and Israel.

“Nobody ever thought they’d be shot at,” Trump said of Gulf countries in a statement last Thursday. He doubled down on this claim Monday, insisting “Nobody was even thinking about it,” and later emphasized, “Nobody, nobody, no, no, no. No, the greatest experts — nobody thought they were going to hit.”

The reality stands in stark contrast to these assertions. Multiple security analysts and regional experts had publicly predicted Iran would retaliate against countries in the region. Iranian officials themselves had explicitly stated such plans, making Trump’s claims demonstrably false.

This rhetorical approach mirrors previous instances during his first term, most notably his 2017 declaration that “nobody knew health care could be so complicated” while struggling to replace the Affordable Care Act. During the COVID-19 pandemic, he made similar claims about the unpredictability of the crisis.

Political analysts suggest this strategy serves a dual purpose. By claiming universal ignorance about potential problems or outcomes, Trump attempts to deflect criticism for his administration’s preparedness or response. If “nobody” could have anticipated these events, the reasoning goes, then he cannot be held accountable for failing to prepare for them.

Many of Trump’s other “nobody” claims appear strategically designed to serve both political and personal objectives. His assertion of ending wars that “nobody knew were occurring” portrays him as an exceptional foreign policy strategist. His claim that “nobody knows” Vice President Kamala Harris’s last name seems calculated to diminish his 2024 election opponent.

Similarly, his allegations that “nobody knows” who receives California’s mail-in ballots bolsters his efforts to restrict mail voting while supporting his narrative about losing the popular vote in 2016 and 2020 due to alleged fraud in Democratic-leaning areas.

Some statements, however, seem puzzling even within this context. In February, when speaking at the U.S. Institute of Peace headquarters in Washington, D.C., Trump claimed the building was “brand new” and that “nobody occupied it” or “knew what the purpose of it was.” In reality, the institute had occupied the custom-built facility since 2011, a fact widely known within government circles and throughout the capital.

Perhaps most striking are Trump’s contradictory claims about Middle East peace. In January, he declared, “We actually have peace in the Middle East. Nobody thought that was possible,” and repeated the next day, “We have peace in the Middle East. It’s an amazing thing. Nobody thought we’d ever see that.”

These statements came despite ongoing conflicts in the region and predated his administration’s military actions against Iran by mere weeks. When pressed on these claims, Trump later acknowledged there were “little flames” in the region and “some flames here and there” – tacit admissions of exaggeration.

Less than two weeks after these modified statements, Trump initiated military action against Iran – the very conflict that prompted the Iranian response he would later claim “nobody” had anticipated.

The pattern reveals a consistent rhetorical strategy: using hyperbole and “nobody knew” claims to either position himself as uniquely insightful or to deflect responsibility when events don’t unfold as planned. Whether these statements represent calculated political messaging or genuine misunderstanding remains a matter of debate among political observers.