Fake News About Future Events Spreads Faster on X, Study Finds

New research from Trinity Business School reveals that fake news stories focused on the future spread more widely on X (formerly Twitter) than other types of false information. This phenomenon, linked to evolutionary psychology, demonstrates how our natural responses to uncertainty may be fueling misinformation online.

The study, published in the Journal of the Association for Information Systems, analyzed over 465,000 tweets from the FakeNewsNet project. Researchers Ashish Kumar Jha from Trinity Business School and Rohit Nishant from Queen’s Business School discovered a clear correlation between future-oriented content and higher engagement rates.

“A plausible reason for the trend we see in our study is that these messages evoke a sense of uncertainty, which is a potent reason for sharing something,” explains Kumar Jha. “Fake news with a strong past orientation may be used to discredit political leaders but, ultimately, these narratives don’t elicit uncertainty.”

The research highlights how specific types of fake news gain traction. For example, a false story claiming “WE WILL RIOT! Michelle Obama’s Mom Will Receive $160k Every Year Out Of Taxpayers’ Pockets!” generated substantial engagement. In contrast, past-oriented fake news like “Donald Trump Protester Speaks Out: ‘I was Paid $3500 to Protest Trump’s Rally!'” received significantly less attention.

This pattern reflects fundamental aspects of human psychology. Our evolutionary instinct to prepare for potential threats makes us particularly responsive to information about uncertain future events. Social media platforms appear to amplify these natural tendencies, creating environments where misleading future predictions can rapidly gain momentum.

The researchers also uncovered another intriguing pattern in how fake news spreads. The relationship between tweet content and article headlines plays a crucial role in engagement rates. When examining how the sentiment in a tweet compares to the headline of the linked fake news article, they found a “U-shaped” relationship affecting engagement.

“A moderate difference generated the most engagement, whereas the posts with the lowest user engagement were those with no difference in sentiments,” notes Kumar Jha. This suggests that some level of contrast between the social media post and the actual headline creates an optimal formula for spreading misinformation.

The findings arrive at a critical moment for social media platforms and information integrity. As X and other networks struggle to contain false information, understanding the psychological mechanisms that drive engagement with fake content becomes increasingly important. The research demonstrates that our evolutionary traits—designed to help us navigate uncertainty and prepare for future challenges—may now be working against us in digital environments.

This study contributes to a growing body of research examining how social media algorithms and human psychology intersect to create information ecosystems vulnerable to manipulation. By identifying specific characteristics that make fake news more spreadable, researchers hope to develop more effective countermeasures.

“Our study found that we have evolved to react in certain ways to certain information like future-oriented news,” says Kumar Jha. “It is interesting to note how our evolution is impacting the way we react on social media platforms. But, more importantly, our study lays the groundwork for responsible digital platforms and what social media platforms should do to limit the spread of fake news.”

The research highlights the responsibility of platform designers to consider these psychological vulnerabilities when developing content recommendation systems. As disinformation continues to pose challenges to democratic discourse and social cohesion, understanding these underlying mechanisms becomes essential for creating healthier information environments.