US-Iran Tensions: Assessing the Impact of American Military Actions

Iran’s War Goals Remain Unmet as Ceasefire Takes Hold

A fragile ceasefire brokered by Pakistan has halted more than five weeks of conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, but President Trump’s initial war objectives appear largely unfulfilled as negotiations begin.

Despite declaring “a big day for World Peace” on his Truth Social platform, Trump’s stated goals of eliminating Iran’s nuclear program, destroying its military capabilities, and achieving regime change remain distant. The administration now faces the complex task of selling limited military gains against significant economic disruption and potential long-term regional instability.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed “a historic and overwhelming victory” during Wednesday’s Pentagon briefing, stating that Iran’s navy is “at the bottom of the sea” and its air force “wiped out.” White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt added that Iran’s missile and drone capabilities have been “set back by years.”

Retired Army Gen. Joseph Votel, former commander of U.S. Central Command, confirmed substantial damage to Iran’s military infrastructure. However, throughout the conflict, Iranian forces maintained operational capabilities, launching daily strikes against Israel, Gulf nations, and occasionally U.S. military installations in the region.

Perhaps most significantly, the ceasefire agreement leaves Iran in control of the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply typically flows. The waterway’s closure during hostilities created a new crisis that didn’t exist before the war began.

“In some ways, it legitimizes Iran’s control,” said Ian Ralby, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center. “Now they’re in a position to use that to their advantage much more proactively.” Before the conflict, Iran allowed ships to pass unimpeded.

Some vessels began moving through the strait Wednesday, though largely consistent with the limited passage Tehran has permitted in recent weeks. Iran has allowed “friendly” tankers to transit, charged others tolls reportedly reaching $2 million, and denied passage to most vessels. This partial blockade has significantly increased global gasoline prices.

Trump stated U.S. forces would be “just ‘hangin’ around'” to ensure smooth maritime operations, but offered no specifics on when or how the estimated 2,000 waiting ships might resume normal transit. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi indicated Iran would guarantee safe passage on the condition that U.S. attacks cease.

Daniel Benaim, a distinguished diplomatic fellow at the Middle East Institute and former State Department official, noted that the strait closure “created a new deterrence and new economic weapon” for Iran. The persistence of passage fees could keep oil prices elevated above pre-conflict levels.

Trump’s claims that Iran was weeks away from acquiring nuclear weapons have been disputed by experts. Ironically, the war may have increased Tehran’s motivation to develop such weapons.

“The war has taught Iran’s leadership a lesson about nuclear weapons: States that have them, such as North Korea, are safe, while Iran has been attacked multiple times,” said Shibley Telhami, professor at the University of Maryland. The assassination of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei removed his religious decree against nuclear weapons, potentially accelerating Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Despite Trump’s televised call for Iranians to “seize control of your destiny,” the regime change objective failed spectacularly. Instead, Mojtaba Khamenei, the former leader’s son, assumed the top position. Experts describe the younger Khamenei as a more hardline version of his father, potentially creating a more dangerous regional dynamic.

“We’ve replaced a resolute, heavily ideological, and IRGC-dominated regime with another resolute, ideological and obdurate IRGC-dominated regime under a man 30 years younger,” Benaim noted, referencing Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The conflict has strained relationships with U.S. allies, particularly in the Gulf. According to Associated Press reports, the administration failed to warn Qatar, Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait of the planned attack on Iran. When these nations subsequently faced Iranian missile and drone strikes targeting oil infrastructure, Trump admitted being “shocked” by the development.

Benaim suggests the administration failed to adequately consider worst-case scenarios, focusing instead on “best-case scenarios” presented to Trump. The resulting economic disruptions have shaken allies’ confidence in U.S. leadership.

Michael McFaul, former U.S. ambassador to Russia, told NPR that the conflict makes America “look like we’re the cowboys… like we don’t care about the rules-based international order,” while “China, in contrast, looks like the status quo power.”

As negotiations proceed, the administration faces significant challenges in demonstrating tangible achievements from a war that has introduced new instabilities to a region already plagued by conflict, while potentially strengthening Iran’s position as a regional power.