Economic and Social Indicators Show Mixed Results in Trump’s First Year Back in Office

The first year of President Donald Trump’s second term has produced a complex economic picture with notable shifts in key indicators, from job growth and inflation to immigration and corporate profits.

Job growth has slowed considerably since Trump returned to the White House, with total nonfarm employment increasing by just 473,000 between January and December 2025. This represents about one-quarter of the 1,782,000 jobs added in the 11 months before Trump took office. Much of this slowdown stems from deliberate reductions in the federal workforce, which has fallen by 277,000 positions, or 9.2%, since January.

Manufacturing continues to struggle, with the loss of 63,000 jobs during Trump’s first 11 months back in office. The unemployment rate has crept up from 4.0% in January to 4.4% by December, though it remains below the historical median of 5.5% since 1948.

The labor market shows signs of cooling, with job-seekers now outnumbering job openings. About 7.5 million Americans are unemployed and seeking work, while only 7.1 million job openings exist—a reversal from when Trump took office.

On the inflation front, results are mixed. The Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% over the past 12 months, down slightly from 3.0% before Trump took office. However, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, has moved in the wrong direction, increasing from 2.5% to 2.8%, further above the central bank’s 2% target.

Despite these challenges, wage growth has accelerated even after accounting for inflation. Real average weekly earnings of private-sector workers rose 1.4% during Trump’s first 11 months, compared to just 0.5% in the preceding period.

Economic growth has shown surprising resilience, with GDP declining at an annual rate of 0.6% in the first quarter of 2025 but rebounding strongly with 3.8% growth in the second quarter and 4.3% in the third. Economists attribute this growth largely to significant artificial intelligence investments and robust household spending, particularly among higher-income consumers. For the full year, economists estimate growth of approximately 1.8%.

Consumer sentiment, however, has fallen precipitously. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped from 71.7 when Trump took office to 54 in January 2026—a decline of 17.7 points. Concerns about high prices and softening labor markets continue to dominate consumer attitudes.

The housing market has shown modest price increases, with the national median price of an existing single-family home rising 2.9% since January. Mortgage rates have declined from 6.96% to 6.16% for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, offering some relief to homebuyers.

One of the most dramatic shifts has occurred in immigration policy. Border apprehensions have plummeted 91.4% during Trump’s first 11 months compared to the same period in 2024, with monthly averages at their lowest level since the early 1960s. The administration has issued more than 500 immigration-related actions, including 38 executive orders, resulting in what the Migration Policy Institute describes as changes “unprecedented in their breadth and reach.”

Refugee admissions have virtually stopped, falling 98% from the same period under Biden. Only 1,226 refugees have been admitted since February, with 1,059 of those coming from South Africa.

Corporate profits and the stock market have continued their upward trajectory. After a slight dip in the first quarter, corporate profits have rebounded to 2.6% above the previous year’s figure. Major stock indexes have posted double-digit gains, with the S&P 500 up 15.7%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 13.5%, and the Nasdaq surging nearly 19.8% since January.

Meanwhile, the number of Americans receiving food assistance through SNAP has decreased by about 1.2 million, or 2.8%. This decline is expected to accelerate due to stricter eligibility requirements implemented through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Crime statistics show a continued decline in violent crime, with murders down approximately 19% compared to the previous year. This continues a downward trend that began in 2022, following a spike during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The federal debt continues to rise, increasing by about 6.7% to nearly $30.8 trillion. Despite promises to reduce debt, the fiscal year ending September 30 recorded a deficit of close to $1.8 trillion—the fourth highest in history.

On energy, U.S. crude oil production has increased by 2.5% to 13.6 million barrels per day, while imports have decreased by 6.9%. Carbon dioxide emissions have risen slightly, up 1.4% in Trump’s first eight months.

These indicators paint a picture of an economy and society in transition, with some metrics improving while others face challenges as the administration implements its policy agenda.