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Manufacturing Construction Spending Declines Under Trump Despite Claims of Growth
Manufacturing construction spending in the United States has decreased since President Donald Trump took office, contrary to his repeated claims of significant growth in this sector. Census Bureau data reveals a downward trend, even as the president has touted a 41% increase in “factory construction” in recent public statements.
At a White House press conference on January 20, Trump declared, “Investment in American factories is up 41%. That’s a record. Nobody goes 41% up. You go 2% up, 1% up. You go down by 3%.” He repeated similar claims at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland the following day, suggesting the number would “skyrocket” due to his administration’s “fast approvals.”
However, the data tells a different story. Manufacturing construction spending has actually declined 6.7% under Trump, according to Census Bureau quarterly data measuring from the last quarter of 2024 through the third quarter of 2025. Monthly data shows a 7.3% decrease from January through October 2025, the most recent period with available figures.
This decline follows a period of remarkable growth during President Joe Biden’s term, when manufacturing construction spending increased by over 200% across four years. Annual average spending rose from $75.5 billion to $235.6 billion, with a particularly dramatic 62% surge in 2023 alone, one year after Biden signed the bipartisan CHIPS Act.
The CHIPS Act, which allocated $39 billion to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing, is widely credited by economists as the primary driver behind the construction boom that preceded Trump’s return to office.
“The massive facilities incentivized by the CHIPS Act will employ thousands of people,” explained Anirban Basu, chief economist for the Associated Builders and Contractors. “Supply chain disruptions at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic convinced many producers to reshore capacity, while a sudden and sharp increase in construction materials prices—which rose more than 40% during the early years of the pandemic—also boosted nominal construction spending.”
Industry experts anticipate the downward trend will continue. The American Institute of Architects’ consensus construction forecast published in January projected manufacturing construction spending would decline another 4% in 2026 and 1% in 2027 after falling about 5% in 2025.
When asked to substantiate the 41% growth claim, the White House provided a methodology comparing “averages of January–August 2025 vs 2021-2024 average.” This approach yields a figure of approximately 40%, but fails to account for the significant growth that occurred during the Biden years or acknowledge that current spending levels remain primarily driven by CHIPS Act investments initiated before Trump’s return to office.
Basu noted that Trump’s tariff policies have contributed to the recent decline in manufacturing construction by increasing costs for materials. “With CHIPS Act-enabled megaprojects winding down and the stiff headwind of trade policy, manufacturing construction spending has fallen by nearly 10% over the past 12 months,” he stated in January.
The manufacturing sector has also seen job losses under Trump, with the economy shedding 63,000 manufacturing jobs during his first 11 months in office, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. This followed a loss of 98,000 jobs in the previous 11 months.
Some analysts remain optimistic about future prospects. Morgan Stanley analyst Chris Snyder suggested that Trump’s tariffs could eventually encourage more domestic manufacturing, noting that higher import costs might make U.S. production more economically attractive. However, the Wall Street Journal reported in January that Trump’s tariffs “haven’t worked, so far,” citing increased costs for manufacturers and uncertainty caused by the administration’s “stop-and-start” tariff policy announcements.
While the long-term impact of current policies remains to be seen, the available data clearly contradicts claims of manufacturing construction growth under the current administration, showing instead a decline that follows a significant expansion during the previous four years.
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10 Comments
Interesting to see the data on manufacturing construction spending under the Trump administration. Looks like the president’s claims of a 41% increase don’t match the reality shown by the Census Bureau figures. I wonder what factors contributed to the overall decline during that period.
Hmm, the disconnect between the president’s rhetoric and the actual data on manufacturing construction spending is quite striking. I wonder if there were any mitigating factors or nuances that could help explain this discrepancy. A more comprehensive assessment would be helpful to fully understand the dynamics at play.
That’s a good point. Diving deeper into the underlying economic conditions and policy changes during that period could shed more light on the reasons behind the decline in construction spending.
It’s important to rely on authoritative data sources like the Census Bureau rather than just taking the president’s word for it. The 6-7% decline in manufacturing construction spending under Trump suggests his policies may not have delivered the promised growth in this sector. I’d like to see a deeper analysis of the reasons behind this trend.
This is an interesting fact check that challenges the president’s claims about investment in American factories. The Census Bureau data paints a different picture, showing a clear downward trend in manufacturing construction spending. I’d be curious to hear the administration’s response and their take on the factors driving this decline.
This is a good fact check on the president’s statements about manufacturing investment. The data clearly shows a downward trend in construction spending, contrary to the rosy picture painted in his public comments. I’m curious to learn more about the underlying economic factors at play.
The data presented in this fact check paints a rather different picture than the president’s rosy claims about investment in American factories. A 6-7% decline in manufacturing construction spending during his term is quite significant. I wonder if there were any mitigating factors or policy shifts that contributed to this trend, and how the administration plans to address it going forward.
This fact check highlights the importance of verifying claims made by political leaders against authoritative data sources. The Census Bureau figures show a clear decline in manufacturing construction spending under the Trump administration, contrary to the president’s public statements. It would be interesting to see how the administration responds to this discrepancy.
The contrast between the president’s rhetoric and the data is quite stark. While he touted a 41% increase, the reality seems to be a 6-7% decline in manufacturing construction spending under his administration. It would be helpful to understand the underlying economic and policy factors that contributed to this trend.
Agreed. A more in-depth analysis of the data and the broader economic context would provide valuable insights into what drove this decline in manufacturing construction spending.