Iran Reportedly Rebuilding Nuclear Facilities, Experts Assess

The latest round of U.S.–Iran nuclear talks is unfolding against a complicated backdrop, one shaped not just by diplomacy, but by what’s happening on the ground inside Iran.

The negotiations come a little more than seven months after U.S. and Israeli strikes hit Iran’s nuclear facilities during Operation Midnight Hammer. While those strikes were initially described as a significant blow to Tehran’s nuclear infrastructure, new evidence suggests Iran’s recovery efforts are well underway.

An analysis by The New York Times of high-resolution satellite imagery reveals that many of the damaged nuclear and missile-related sites are already being rebuilt. Experts tracking Iran’s nuclear and missile programs reviewed approximately two dozen locations targeted by either the U.S. or Israel and found construction activity at more than half of them.

The imagery shows new buildings rising at several facilities, indicating Iran has moved swiftly to restore damaged infrastructure. However, satellite imagery has significant limitations, only capturing above-ground activity and leaving open questions about whether sensitive work might be continuing underground.

Against this backdrop of reconstruction, U.S. and Iranian officials recently met in Oman for indirect talks mediated by the Omani government. These discussions aimed at potentially restarting more formal nuclear negotiations. While no agreement emerged from these preliminary meetings, they did help clarify each side’s position.

According to reporting from Al Jazeera, Iran signaled willingness to scale back certain aspects of its nuclear program, including lowering uranium enrichment levels and permitting increased international inspections. In exchange, Tehran is seeking substantial sanctions relief, particularly measures that would allow Iranian oil exports to resume and boost its struggling economy.

Iranian officials have framed potential nuclear concessions as a pathway to economic recovery for a country whose economy has been severely constrained by international sanctions. However, they’ve also established clear boundaries for negotiations.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, Tehran has explicitly stated it will not negotiate over its ballistic missile program or its regional alliances with proxy groups like Hamas and Hezbollah – organizations it has supported for years as part of its regional security strategy.

The current situation represents the latest chapter in a decades-long saga of Iran’s nuclear ambitions. According to the Congressional Research Service, Iran’s nuclear efforts date back to the 1950s, with U.S. officials beginning to express concerns about potential weaponization as early as the mid-1970s.

International monitoring agencies and U.S. intelligence have consistently maintained that Iran has not launched a formal nuclear weapons program. However, Tehran has steadily built technical capabilities that could significantly reduce the timeframe needed to produce such weapons if political leaders made that decision.

This technical distinction is crucial for understanding the current standoff. While Iran hasn’t been caught assembling nuclear bombs, it has invested heavily in uranium enrichment and other technologies that could expedite weaponization if desired.

The Council on Foreign Relations reports that Iran is closer than ever from a technical standpoint to potential nuclear weapons capability. The country has enriched uranium to approximately 60 percent purity – still below the roughly 90 percent needed for weapons-grade material, but far exceeding what’s required for civilian energy production.

U.S. and international analysts assess that Iran could produce enough weapons-grade nuclear material in a matter of weeks, possibly even days, should it choose to do so. However, converting that material into a functional nuclear weapon would likely require more time and involve additional technical challenges.

These talks come at a particularly sensitive moment in Middle Eastern geopolitics, with ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon and increasing concerns about regional escalation. For the Biden administration, finding diplomatic solutions with Iran represents a significant foreign policy challenge, balancing security concerns with the potential benefits of de-escalation.

For now, both sides appear to be taking measured steps toward renewed dialogue, even as Iran’s rebuilding efforts continue and fundamental differences on key issues remain unresolved.