Inflation Eases in Official Reports, but Grocery Costs Continue to Burden Americans

As Thanksgiving comes and goes, new data shows a mixed picture for American households: the cost of cooking a traditional holiday meal is down for the third straight year, but millions of families say their day-to-day grocery bills still feel unmanageable. The disconnect highlights a broader trend, inflation may be cooling on paper, but affordability remains a major pressure point across the country.

According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, the average cost of preparing a classic Thanksgiving dinner is about 5% cheaper than last year, a rare bright spot for holiday hosts.

The primary factor driving this decrease is turkey prices, which plunged roughly 16%, pulling the overall cost of the meal down. However, not everything on the traditional Thanksgiving table follows this downward trend.

The Farm Bureau’s analysis revealed significant price variations across typical holiday ingredients. Fresh vegetable trays surged more than 61% compared to last year, while sweet potatoes increased by 37%. Fourteen-ounce packages of cubed stuffing mix provided some relief, declining 9%, but a pound of frozen peas jumped 17.2% in price.

The dramatic increase in sweet potato prices can be traced to specific supply chain disruptions. North Carolina, which leads the nation in sweet potato production, suffered substantial hurricane damage last year. The resulting crop damage tightened supplies nationwide and pushed prices upward, according to agricultural economists.

Similar natural disasters and ongoing supply chain volatility have affected various produce categories, creating an uneven pricing landscape for consumers planning holiday meals.

While the Thanksgiving snapshot provides a mixed picture, broader economic data reveals a more persistent affordability crisis. A new analysis from CBS News indicates that millions of Americans continue to feel financially squeezed, despite inflation having fallen substantially from its pandemic-era peak.

This persistent pressure stems from several sources. Long-standing structural problems in the economy, chronic housing shortages, escalating child-care expenses, healthcare price increases, and rising utility bills have all contributed to the financial strain. CBS also points to newer pressures, including what they describe as “steep new U.S. tariffs” that have pushed prices higher in certain sectors.

The result is a significant disconnect between official inflation statistics and consumer experience. While the rate of price increases has slowed, the absolute price level remains substantially higher than pre-pandemic norms—and American households feel the difference acutely.

A recent Axios/Harris Poll quantifies this sentiment, finding that nearly half of Americans say groceries are harder to afford today than they were a year ago, despite the slowdown in grocery inflation. The official data shows grocery inflation up just 2.7% year-over-year, but CBS News’ price tracker indicates food costs overall are still 18% higher than they were in January 2022.

This gap between inflation rates and absolute price levels helps explain why consumers remain concerned despite improving economic indicators. As economists point out, households don’t compare prices to last month or even last year—they remember what they paid before the pandemic-era inflation surge began.

The consequences of these elevated prices are increasingly visible in household food security data. This year, 14% of U.S. households have experienced food insecurity, according to research from Purdue University’s Food Demand Analysis Center. The situation is particularly acute in high-cost urban areas. In New York City, research from Robin Hood and Columbia University found that a staggering 40% of families cannot afford their weekly food costs.

These statistics highlight the complex economic reality facing American households. While inflation may be cooling and specific seasonal items like turkey may cost less this year, the cumulative impact of years of elevated prices continues to strain family budgets across the country.

As economic analysts point out, the experience of affordability depends not just on the rate of price changes but on how those prices compare to household incomes and historical norms—a reality that many American families are confronting each time they visit the grocery store.