Inflation Eases in Official Data, but Grocery Costs Continue to Burden Americans

As Thanksgiving comes and goes, new data shows a mixed picture for American households: the cost of cooking a traditional holiday meal is down for the third straight year, but millions of families say their day-to-day grocery bills still feel unmanageable. The disconnect highlights a broader trend – inflation may be cooling on paper, but affordability remains a major pressure point across the country.

According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, the average cost of preparing a classic Thanksgiving dinner is about 5% cheaper than last year, a rare bright spot for holiday hosts.

The main driver behind the decrease is turkey prices, which plunged roughly 16%, pulling the overall cost of the meal down. However, not everything on the Thanksgiving table followed this downward trend. The Farm Bureau’s analysis revealed significant price variations across traditional holiday items.

Fresh vegetable trays saw the most dramatic increase, jumping more than 61% from last year. Sweet potatoes rose by 37%, while a pound of frozen peas increased 17.2%. On the positive side, 14-ounces of cubed stuffing mix decreased by 9%.

Agricultural experts point to natural disasters and supply-chain volatility as key factors behind these price fluctuations. North Carolina, which produces the largest share of America’s sweet potatoes, suffered major hurricane damage last year, significantly tightening supply and driving prices upward.

The Thanksgiving meal data reflects a broader economic reality that many Americans are experiencing – the disconnect between official inflation figures and everyday financial pressures. While headline inflation has cooled considerably from pandemic-era highs, a new analysis from CBS News indicates that millions of Americans still feel financially squeezed.

This persistent affordability crisis stems from multiple sources, according to economic analysts. Long-standing structural problems in the U.S. economy, including chronic housing shortages, have kept shelter costs elevated. Rising child-care expenses, health care price increases, and climbing utility bills continue to strain household budgets. Additionally, newer pressures such as tariff policies have contributed to price increases in certain sectors.

The result is a consumer landscape where prices may not be accelerating as rapidly as during peak inflation, but they remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels – a reality that weighs heavily on household finances.

A recent Axios/Harris Poll found that nearly half of Americans report groceries are harder to afford today than they were a year ago, despite the official slowdown in grocery inflation. This perception gap is understandable when examining the numbers more closely.

While grocery inflation has moderated to just 2.7% year-over-year, CBS News’ price tracker shows food costs overall remain 18% higher than in January 2022. For many families, this cumulative increase over a relatively short period has created genuine hardship.

The impact is measurable across the country. This year, 14% of U.S. households have experienced food insecurity, according to research from Purdue University’s Food Demand Analysis Center – a figure that reflects millions of American families struggling to put food on the table.

The situation is particularly dire in high-cost urban areas. In New York City, approximately 40% of families cannot afford their weekly food costs, according to joint research from Robin Hood and Columbia University.

Food economists note that consumers aren’t primarily comparing current prices to those from last month or even last year – they’re measuring against what they used to pay before pandemic-era inflation took hold. This psychological reference point helps explain why many Americans continue to feel financial strain despite improving inflation data.

As the holiday season progresses, this disconnect between macroeconomic indicators and household-level financial reality will likely remain a central economic narrative, with implications for consumer behavior, retail performance, and broader economic policy discussions heading into 2025.