Impact of Iran’s Strait of Hormuz Blockade on the United States

The recent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has sent ripples through global oil markets, contradicting former President Donald Trump’s claim that the disruption “doesn’t really affect” the United States.

Iran has effectively shut down the strategic waterway in retaliation for joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that began on February 28. The nation has threatened military action against vessels attempting to navigate the narrow passage between Iran and Oman, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.

The impact has been immediate and significant. About 20 million barrels of crude oil and related products typically flow through the strait daily, but this has dwindled “to a trickle” since the conflict began, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). As a result, oil prices have surged by double-digit percentages, contributing to more than a 50-cent increase in U.S. gasoline prices.

“The US is definitely affected,” said Mark Finley, a nonresident fellow in energy and global oil at Rice University’s Baker Institute. “If something goes wrong anywhere, the price goes up everywhere,” he explained, highlighting the interconnected nature of global oil markets.

While addressing the situation at a March 9 press conference, Trump suggested offering “risk insurance” to tankers in the region, possibly with U.S. Navy escorts. However, he then downplayed the impact on America, stating, “It affects other countries much more than it does the United States. It doesn’t really affect us. We have so much oil.”

The former president’s assessment contains some truth. Only about 8% of U.S. crude oil imports—approximately 490,000 barrels daily—came from Persian Gulf countries last year. In contrast, Canada and Mexico supplied roughly 70% of America’s imported crude, with Canada alone accounting for over 63%, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

By comparison, Asian nations rely heavily on Persian Gulf oil. The IEA reports that about 80% of oil and petroleum products moving through the strait in 2025 were destined for Asia, with China, India, and Japan being the primary importers. China specifically receives between 45% and 50% of its oil imports through the waterway.

However, energy experts emphasize that Americans are not insulated from the price effects. Abhi Rajendran, director of Oil Markets Research at Energy Intelligence, noted, “It insulates us in the sense that we’re not going to have a hard time finding supply, but the prices are global, so prices go up anyway.”

The U.S. still relies on some imports because many domestic refineries were designed for heavier crude oils than those typically produced in American oil fields. This configuration explains why the U.S. simultaneously exports much of its domestically produced light crude while importing heavier varieties.

Since the airstrikes began, West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, has surged about 41% to nearly $95 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, has risen approximately 32% to just over $94 per barrel. These increases have pushed the average price for regular gasoline in the U.S. to $3.50 per gallon—a jump of about 56 cents, or 19%, since late February.

In response to the crisis, on March 11, the 32 member nations of the International Energy Agency, including the United States, announced plans to make 400 million barrels from their oil reserves available for purchase. Trump authorized releasing 172 million barrels from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve over several weeks.

Whether these releases will stabilize markets depends on how quickly the crude can be distributed and how long the conflict persists. Rajendran believes the strategy “will help…as long as the conflict doesn’t drag on past early to mid-April.” Beyond that timeframe, countries may need to draw more heavily from reserves or implement other measures to address demand.

The situation underscores the global nature of oil markets and demonstrates that even as the world’s largest oil producer, the United States remains vulnerable to international supply disruptions and price shocks triggered by geopolitical conflicts half a world away.