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Trump’s Claims on Economic Progress Face Scrutiny as Inflation Data Shows Mixed Results
President Donald Trump has repeatedly touted his administration’s progress on inflation and economic metrics since taking office in January 2025, claiming significant improvements in Americans’ financial well-being. However, a closer examination of economic data presents a more nuanced reality than the administration’s statements suggest.
During an address to service members aboard the USS George Washington in Japan on October 28, Trump declared, “Energy costs are way down. Gasoline prices are way down. Grocery prices are way down… Inflation has been defeated.” He later stated at a South Korean luncheon that inflation had fallen to “a very low rate” of 2.7%, though the actual rate stands at 3%.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed these sentiments on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” claiming that inflation has declined under Trump’s leadership. “When we came in, it was ‘egg-flation, egg-flation, egg-flation,'” Bessent said. “Egg prices are down. Gasoline prices are down. Overall, the inflation since President Trump has come in has come down.”
While Bessent’s specific claims about eggs and gasoline prices have merit—egg prices have indeed fallen since December 2024, and gasoline has dropped from $3.11 to $3.03 per gallon since Trump’s inauguration—the broader inflation picture is more complicated.
The most widely tracked inflation metric, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), tells a different story. Despite the ongoing government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has continued reporting the CPI to ensure Social Security cost-of-living adjustments can be calculated.
Looking at year-over-year changes in the CPI—economists’ preferred method for assessing inflation—the data shows that while inflation declined during Trump’s first three full months in office, it has since reversed course. After falling in February, March, and April, inflation rates increased in May, June, July, and September, holding steady in August.
By September 2025, the year-over-year inflation rate stood at 3%, matching January’s rate when Trump took office and slightly higher than the 2.9% recorded in December 2024, Biden’s final full month as president. This 3% rate actually exceeds inflation levels seen during the last six months of Biden’s administration.
Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the center-right American Action Forum, expressed concern about this trajectory. “The Federal Reserve had engineered a remarkably successful path to return to 2 percent, which has been disrupted by, especially, Trump’s tariffs,” Holtz-Eakin noted. “Now, inflation is at 3 percent and rising. I expect it to keep rising.”
However, using a different metric gives some credence to the administration’s claims. When volatile food and energy prices are excluded from calculations—a method economists often employ to understand underlying inflation trends—the picture improves slightly for Trump. This “core inflation” rate was 3% in September, down from 3.2% in December 2024 and 3.3% in January 2025.
One positive economic development under Trump has been wage growth outpacing inflation. Throughout most of Biden’s presidency, wages failed to keep up with rising prices, but that trend has reversed under Trump, with wages rising faster than prices compared to January levels.
Nevertheless, experts caution against drawing firm conclusions so early in Trump’s term. The Private Enterprise Research Center at Texas A&M University noted that “the first seven months of a 48-month term in office is much too short to render judgment.” The center also warned that Trump’s tariff policies could potentially undermine these gains.
When evaluating the administration’s claims about taming inflation, the data shows mixed results at best. Overall inflation hasn’t declined as claimed, though certain metrics like core inflation show modest improvement. While specific items like eggs and gasoline have become less expensive, many Americans continue to face higher prices for groceries, electricity, and beef—contradicting Trump’s broader assertions about widespread price decreases.
As the administration approaches its first full year in office, economists will be watching closely to see whether inflation truly stabilizes or whether tariffs and other policies create additional upward pressure on prices that American consumers will ultimately bear.
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10 Comments
This is a thought-provoking examination of the inflation data. It’s clear that the issue is more nuanced than the administration’s claims, and I’m curious to see how the trends evolve.
The mixed results on inflation are a good reminder that the economy is not a simple binary. I’m curious to see how the data evolves in the coming months and how that affects the political discourse.
Interesting analysis. It’s clear the inflation picture is more nuanced than the administration’s claims. I’m curious to see how the data on specific metrics like energy, gas, and food prices plays out over time.
An insightful and fact-based analysis. It’s important to separate political spin from the economic realities when it comes to inflation and other key indicators.
Useful to have this factual analysis to counter the administration’s selective framing. Tracking the full range of inflation metrics will be key to understanding the true economic picture.
This highlights the importance of looking past political rhetoric and examining the economic data objectively. Inflation is a complex issue, and it will be important to track the trends beyond just the top-line numbers.
This is a helpful reality check on the administration’s claims. Inflation is a multifaceted issue, and it will be important to monitor a range of indicators to get a clear sense of the trends.
I appreciate the balanced approach here. It’s easy to get caught up in political rhetoric, but it’s important to scrutinize the data and look at the bigger picture on inflation.
I appreciate the fact-based approach here. It’s critical that economic reporting cuts through the political spin and provides a nuanced, data-driven analysis of the inflation landscape.
While lower inflation is certainly good news, it’s important to dig deeper and understand the full picture. The administration’s selective focus on certain metrics doesn’t tell the whole story.