Fact Check: Verifying Premier Smith’s Claims About Temporary Residents

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith made headlines recently with claims about the impact of temporary residents on the province’s housing market and broader economy. During a provincial government news conference, Smith expressed concerns about the influx of temporary residents, suggesting they were straining Alberta’s resources and housing supply.

“We need to understand what’s going on with the temporary resident population,” Smith stated during the conference. “The federal government is bringing in 2.5 million people on temporary visas. That’s a city bigger than the size of Toronto.”

An analysis of Smith’s statements reveals some mischaracterizations of federal immigration policy and statistics. While Canada is experiencing significant growth in its temporary resident population, the premier’s figures appear to conflate several distinct categories and timeframes.

According to Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), the total number of temporary residents in the country as of December 2023 was approximately 2.5 million. However, this figure represents the accumulated total across all temporary programs nationwide, not the annual intake as Smith’s comments implied.

The temporary resident category encompasses various groups including international students, foreign workers under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program, those in the International Mobility Program, refugee claimants, and visitors with special permits. Each of these programs serves different economic and humanitarian purposes within Canada’s immigration framework.

In Alberta specifically, the province hosted approximately 183,000 temporary residents as of late 2023, representing about 7.3% of the national total. This proportion aligns roughly with Alberta’s share of Canada’s population, suggesting the province isn’t bearing a disproportionate burden of temporary migration as Smith’s comments might suggest.

Housing affordability remains a legitimate concern across Canada, including in Alberta where major centers like Calgary and Edmonton have seen rapidly rising rental and purchase prices. However, experts point out that temporary migration is just one factor among many affecting housing markets, including interest rates, construction costs, supply chain issues, and domestic migration patterns.

Statistics Canada data indicates that interprovincial migration has played a significant role in Alberta’s population growth, with the province gaining nearly 55,000 residents from other provinces in 2023 alone. This domestic migration surge, driven largely by Alberta’s relatively stronger economy and lower housing costs compared to British Columbia and Ontario, has contributed substantially to housing demand.

Urban planning experts note that housing pressures in Alberta predate the recent immigration increases, reflecting longer-term issues with housing supply that multiple levels of government have struggled to address.

Benjamin Tal, Deputy Chief Economist at CIBC, commented on the broader national picture: “Immigration is certainly contributing to housing demand, but we need to be precise about which categories of newcomers are having what impact. Temporary foreign workers in agriculture, for example, typically have employer-provided housing and aren’t competing in urban rental markets.”

The federal government has recently announced measures to reduce the number of temporary residents, particularly targeting a 35% reduction in international student permits for 2024. Immigration Minister Marc Miller has acknowledged the need to better align immigration levels with housing capacity and infrastructure planning.

Alberta’s own Provincial Nominee Program, which the province controls, continues to actively recruit skilled immigrants to address labor shortages in healthcare, construction, and technology sectors.

Smith’s office later clarified her statements, noting that the premier was referencing the nationwide figure and expressing concern about federal-provincial coordination on immigration policies rather than opposing immigration itself.

The debate highlights the complex relationship between population growth, housing policy, and economic development as governments at all levels grapple with managing growth while addressing affordability concerns. It also underscores the importance of precision in public discourse about immigration, particularly distinguishing between permanent and temporary migration streams and their varied economic impacts.

As Alberta continues to experience strong economic growth relative to other provinces, the challenges of housing a growing population—whether from international or interprovincial sources—will remain a key policy issue for Smith’s government.