Fact Check: Trump’s Walmart Thanksgiving Basket Claim

Donald Trump’s recent claim that a Thanksgiving basket at Walmart costs significantly more under President Biden’s administration has drawn scrutiny from fact-checkers and economic analysts, revealing a complex picture of food inflation in America.

At a campaign rally in Michigan last week, the former president asserted that a typical Thanksgiving meal from Walmart now costs $72, claiming it represented a dramatic increase from $38 during his administration. “That’s almost a 100% increase,” Trump told supporters, using the figure to bolster his broader argument about inflation under the Biden presidency.

However, Walmart officials have disputed these specific price points. A company spokesperson clarified that while they don’t track a defined “Thanksgiving basket,” their internal data shows the cost of preparing a traditional holiday meal for a family of four remains around $25. The retailer has maintained this price point for three consecutive years as part of their affordability commitment during the holidays.

When pressed for the source of Trump’s figures, his campaign did not provide specific documentation supporting the $38 to $72 comparison. Economic analysts note that while food inflation has indeed occurred during Biden’s term, the magnitude described by Trump appears significantly exaggerated.

The American Farm Bureau Federation, which conducts an annual survey of Thanksgiving meal costs, reported that a feast for 10 people averaged $53.31 in 2021, up 14% from $46.90 in 2020 during Trump’s final year in office. Their most recent data shows the cost has stabilized somewhat, with a slight decline to $51.47 in 2023.

Food inflation has been a genuine concern for American consumers. Following the pandemic’s supply chain disruptions, food prices rose substantially in 2021 and 2022, with the Consumer Price Index for food showing increases of 3.9% and 9.9% in those years respectively. The trend has moderated in 2023, with the annual food inflation rate slowing to 3.7% through September.

Economists point to multiple factors driving these increases, including pandemic-related supply chain issues, labor shortages, increased transportation costs, and global events like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which disrupted grain markets worldwide. Climate events affecting crop yields have further complicated the food price landscape.

“The causes of food inflation are multifaceted and cannot be attributed solely to any single administration’s policies,” explains Dr. Megan Thompson, agricultural economist at Cornell University. “We’ve witnessed a perfect storm of global supply disruptions coinciding with strong consumer demand as economies reopened after COVID lockdowns.”

Walmart has positioned itself as a price leader during this inflationary period. In November, the retail giant announced it would offer Thanksgiving meals at costs lower than last year, part of a broader holiday discount strategy. The company reported that items including turkey, ham, stuffing mix and prepared side dishes would maintain affordable price points to help budget-conscious shoppers.

For many American families, the perception of inflation remains strongly negative regardless of the exact percentages. Consumer sentiment surveys show that grocery prices remain a top financial concern, with many households reporting they’ve changed shopping habits to manage food costs.

While the precise figures cited by Trump don’t align with official retail or government data, his message resonates with voters feeling the pinch at checkout counters. Polling consistently shows economic concerns, particularly around everyday expenses, remain a vulnerability for the Biden administration heading into an election year.

Economic analysts emphasize that when evaluating claims about inflation, consumers should consider authoritative sources like the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which provides detailed monthly reports on price changes across various categories, rather than relying on political campaign rhetoric from either party.

As Americans prepare for the holiday season, the debate over Thanksgiving meal costs underscores how kitchen table economics remains central to political messaging, with both parties attempting to frame inflation narratives to their advantage ahead of the 2024 presidential election.