Fact Check: Trump’s Claims of ‘Rigged’ Job Numbers Lack Evidence

In a move that has sent shockwaves through the economic and political landscape, President Donald Trump fired Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer hours after the agency released disappointing July employment data. The president claimed the job numbers were “phony” and accused McEntarfer of manipulating data to benefit Democrats, though he has provided no evidence to support these allegations.

The August 1 BLS report showed minimal job growth of just 73,000 positions in July, along with significant downward revisions for May and June, reducing those months’ combined job growth by 258,000 positions. The data indicates the economy has added 486,000 jobs during Trump’s second term, a growth rate of 0.3% – roughly half the pace seen during the same period last year.

Former BLS commissioners from both Republican and Democratic administrations have strongly refuted the president’s claims that the numbers could have been manipulated. Kathy Utgoff, appointed by President George W. Bush, stated in an interview that commissioners “can’t rig the numbers” and have “no ability to change the numbers that come out of computers at the last minute.”

William Beach, who served as BLS commissioner during Trump’s first term, described an identical process, explaining that “by the time the commissioner sees the numbers, they’re all prepared. They’re locked into the computer system.” Beach called McEntarfer’s firing “totally groundless” and warned it “sets a dangerous precedent and undermines the statistical mission of the Bureau.”

The BLS, which produces crucial data on employment, wages, and inflation, has long maintained a reputation for nonpartisan statistical work. Its monthly employment estimates are based on the establishment survey, which collects data from approximately 121,000 employers representing about 30% of U.S. employment.

Trump’s timeline regarding past BLS announcements also contains significant inaccuracies. Contrary to his claim that the agency released “beautiful numbers” for Democrats days before the election, the November 1 pre-election jobs report actually showed weak growth of just 12,000 jobs in October – a figure Fox News described as “dismal” and the Trump campaign called “a catastrophe.”

The president also referenced an 800,000-900,000 job reduction announced after the election, but this appears to refer to a preliminary annual benchmark revision announced in August 2023, which is part of the agency’s standard procedure. The final revision, announced in February 2024 as routinely scheduled, was a downward adjustment of 589,000 jobs.

McEntarfer, an economist with over 20 years of government service, was confirmed to her four-year term in January 2024 by an overwhelmingly bipartisan Senate vote of 86-8, with support from current Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

David Wilcox, former chair of the Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee, emphasized that BLS staff “understand to their core the importance of delivering the best possible estimates, even if and when the message is inconvenient for the president and his team.” He noted that while the recent revisions were “larger than normal,” they reflect the nature of statistical estimates rather than manipulation.

Following the firing, a group called Friends of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which includes former commissioners from both parties, issued a statement calling Trump’s claims “baseless” and warning they “undermine the credibility of federal economic statistics that are a cornerstone of intelligent economic decision-making by businesses, families, and policymakers.”

The administration has proposed an 8% cut to the BLS budget for fiscal year 2026 and plans to reorganize the agency along with the Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis into a single entity within the Department of Commerce.