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In a clear departure from reality, former President Donald Trump made exaggerated claims about U.S. gasoline prices during his State of the Union address, according to industry analysts who quickly fact-checked his statements.
Trump asserted that gas prices are “below $2.30 a gallon in most states” and claimed prices had fallen to “$1.99 a gallon” in some areas. He contrasted these figures with what he called the “disaster” of $6-per-gallon prices during President Joe Biden’s administration.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, dismissed Trump’s portrayal as largely fictional. According to AAA data, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline stood at $2.98 on Thursday, with even the lowest state average—Oklahoma at $2.43 per gallon—significantly higher than Trump’s claim.
“Only 8 out of roughly 150,000 gas stations nationwide are selling gasoline below $2 per gallon,” De Haan wrote in his Substack newsletter titled “The Real State of Fuel Prices.” He explained that while the national average is indeed about 16 cents lower than a year ago, it remains close to $3 per gallon rather than Trump’s claimed $2.30.
The former president’s assertion about $1.85 gas in Iowa contained a kernel of truth but lacked crucial context. De Haan noted that such prices did briefly appear last month, but resulted from “localized price wars and not structural shifts” in the energy market. These represented “highly localized competitive events” where gas stations operated on razor-thin margins or even sold fuel at a loss to attract customers.
Current gas price trends are actually moving upward, not downward as Trump’s comments implied. De Haan explained this is largely due to the Environmental Protection Agency’s routine seasonal transition to summer-blend gasoline, which typically costs more to produce. This cleaner-burning fuel is required during warmer months to reduce smog and harmful emissions.
The West Coast is experiencing the sharpest price increases as the seasonal transition begins earlier there, particularly in areas east of the Rocky Mountains. Adding further upward pressure on prices are rising geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which threaten oil transport through the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz.
“There’s certainly market anxiety surrounding the geopolitical tensions that’s pushed oil to that level,” De Haan told Forbes. Such tensions historically lead to price speculation in crude oil markets, which eventually affects consumer prices at the pump.
Looking ahead, De Haan predicts prices will continue rising “without a doubt.” The routine seasonal increases could push prices up by 35 to 50 cents per gallon in coming months. According to GasBuddy’s 2026 fuel outlook, the national average is expected to reach its peak around April or May.
The analysis underscores how presidential rhetoric on gas prices often oversimplifies the complex factors determining what Americans pay at the pump. Retail gasoline prices reflect a combination of crude oil costs, refining capacity, seasonal fuel blends, transportation logistics, regional competition, and geopolitical developments—most of which lie beyond direct presidential control.
While presidents often take credit for low gas prices and face blame for high ones, analysts consistently point out that the global oil market, rather than White House policies, typically drives price fluctuations experienced by consumers. This makes Trump’s attempt to claim credit for non-existent price levels particularly misleading, according to industry experts.
As summer driving season approaches, Americans should prepare for higher, not lower, prices than those mentioned in Trump’s address, regardless of which political party controls Washington.
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11 Comments
An interesting fact check. It’s good to see the actual data and analysis presented, rather than just political rhetoric. I’m curious to understand more about the various factors influencing gas prices and how they might evolve over time.
The data seems to clearly contradict Trump’s assertions about gas prices. It’s good to see the claims scrutinized and the real figures presented. I’m curious to understand what’s behind the current pricing dynamics in the fuel market.
This is a helpful reality check on Trump’s gas price statements. It’s crucial to separate political rhetoric from the actual data, especially on issues that directly impact people’s daily lives. I’d be curious to hear more expert analysis on the factors driving current fuel costs.
This is a valuable reality check on the gas price claims. It’s crucial to rely on credible data sources and empirical evidence, rather than unsubstantiated statements. I’d be interested to hear more expert perspectives on the current fuel market dynamics.
Thanks for sharing this fact check. It’s important to rely on credible data sources when discussing such important economic issues. I wonder how gas prices compare globally and what factors are driving the current trends.
Appreciate the objective analysis in this fact check. It’s important to scrutinize claims, even from high-profile figures, and refer to authoritative data sources. I wonder how the current gas prices compare to historical trends and what the outlook is for the future.
This is a helpful analysis of the actual gas price situation compared to Trump’s claims. It’s crucial to separate political rhetoric from the factual reality, especially on issues that impact people’s daily lives. I’d be interested to see how these trends evolve over time.
A helpful fact check on the gas price statements. It’s important to separate political messaging from the actual data, especially on issues that directly impact people’s daily lives. I wonder what the long-term outlook is for fuel costs and what can be done to address the challenges.
Interesting fact check on Trump’s gas price claims. It’s good to see the data analyzed objectively, rather than just accepting unsubstantiated statements. Curious to hear more perspectives on the current state of fuel prices.
An informative analysis. It’s good to see the claims scrutinized and the real data presented. I’m curious to understand more about the factors driving current gas prices and how they might evolve in the coming months.
An informative fact check. It’s important to rely on credible sources and empirical data rather than unverified claims, especially when it comes to important economic indicators like gas prices. I wonder what the outlook is for future price trends.