Fact Check: Swiss Think Tank Did Not Attribute 75% of West African Insecurity to Fulani Ethnic Group

A prominent Swiss security think tank has strongly rejected claims circulating on social media that linked the Fulani ethnic group to 75% of West Africa’s insecurity problems.

Facebook posts that appeared in late September falsely attributed research to the Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces (DCAF), claiming the organization had found that “75% of Nigeria/West Africa insecurity is linked to the Fulanis/Peul people.” The posts further alleged that DCAF research showed Fulani people were either directly involved in regional conflicts or helped distribute weapons to militia groups.

When contacted by Reuters, a spokesperson for DCAF categorically denied these claims, expressing shock at the statements being attributed to their organization.

“We were unaware of these shocking claims, which we categorically reject and condemn,” the spokesperson said. “DCAF has never made such a statement and would never do so, given our mandate and values.”

The spokesperson further clarified that DCAF’s work doesn’t include research on the drivers of violence, nor do any of their publications mention specific ethnicities. “It is not at all within our mandate and areas of expertise,” they emphasized.

The Fulani, also referred to as Fulbe or Peul, are a semi-nomadic pastoralist group primarily residing in the Sahel region spanning West and Central Africa. They constitute Africa’s largest pastoralist community, with populations spread across multiple countries in the region.

While regional conflicts involving Fulani herders do exist, the attribution of a specific percentage of insecurity to this ethnic group appears to be fabricated. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) published a report in 2021 that acknowledged significant Fulani-associated violence in Nigeria and the Central Sahel. However, this violence is typically rooted in complex inter-ethnic rivalries over increasingly scarce land and resources.

These tensions have been exacerbated by climate change, which has intensified competition for grazing land and water, as well as by the growing presence of jihadist groups across the region. Security analysts have noted that these environmental and political pressures have complicated traditional relationships between herding and farming communities throughout West Africa.

While DCAF has published reports that reference conflicts between various groups in the region, including those involving Fulani communities, a thorough review of their publications found no evidence supporting the 75% claim or any similar quantitative assessment linking the Fulani to regional insecurity.

The false attribution to DCAF appears to be part of a concerning pattern of misinformation that oversimplifies complex regional conflicts by assigning disproportionate blame to specific ethnic groups. Such misleading characterizations can potentially inflame tensions and contribute to further instability.

Regional security experts have consistently emphasized that West Africa’s security challenges stem from a complex interplay of factors, including governance issues, climate change, economic disparities, and the expanding influence of extremist organizations. Attributing these multifaceted problems primarily to any single ethnic group represents a dangerous oversimplification.

The Reuters Fact Check team, which investigated these claims as part of their ongoing work to verify information circulating online, concluded that the attribution to DCAF was false, based both on the absence of such statements in the think tank’s publications and the explicit denial from the organization itself.