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Reports of Trump’s “Praise be to Allah” Polymarket Bet Proven False
A claim circulating on social media suggesting that a Polymarket user accurately wagered President Donald Trump would praise Allah on Easter 2026 has been debunked as false, with no evidence supporting the existence of such a bet on the prediction marketplace platform.
The rumor gained traction after Trump posted the phrase “Praise be to Allah” on his social media network, Truth Social, on Easter Sunday, April 5, 2026. Following this unusual post, social media users began claiming that someone with insider knowledge—or possibly Trump himself—had placed a bet on this specific occurrence and won significant sums due to the supposedly astronomical odds.
One viral post alleged that a user named “RealJohnBarron47” had “made a killing” on the wager. The username referenced “John Barron,” a pseudonym Trump reportedly used when dealing with the press during his New York business career, combined with “47” to indicate his current presidency (Trump is the 47th U.S. president, having previously served as the 45th).
However, a thorough search of Polymarket’s website using multiple relevant keywords including “Allah,” “Praise be to Allah,” “Trump Allah,” and “Trump Easter Allah” revealed no evidence of any such wager existing prior to Trump’s Easter post.
The false claim appears to have originated from a social media post by Adam Kinzinger, a CNN commentator and former Republican congressman. Kinzinger posted on X (formerly Twitter): “Polymarket: 99-1 odds against the president praising Allah on Easter,” alongside a screenshot of Trump’s Truth Social message. He shared similar content on Facebook, which was subsequently amplified by other users.
Some social media accounts took Kinzinger’s apparent quip a step further by creating and sharing fabricated screenshots purporting to show the alleged Polymarket bet. These manipulated images helped spread the misinformation further across social platforms.
Interestingly, while the original bet claim is false, Trump’s unusual Easter message did inspire a legitimate new market on Polymarket following the incident. A wager titled “Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?” appeared on the prediction marketplace after his post. As of the report’s writing, users betting on this question had set the probability at approximately 10%.
Polymarket has become a focal point for political wagering in recent years, allowing users to place bets on various outcomes related to elections, policy decisions, and public statements by political figures. The platform uses blockchain technology and operates with real money, making it a significant player in the growing prediction market space.
This incident highlights the ongoing challenge of distinguishing between factual reporting and misinformation in today’s digital landscape, particularly regarding high-profile political figures like former and current president Trump. It also demonstrates how quickly false claims can spread when they involve controversial or unusual statements by public officials.
Snopes, which investigated this claim, has previously covered other rumors related to Polymarket wagers, including allegations that Trump administration insiders accurately bet on the exact date the United States would first strike Iran—claims that similarly required careful fact-checking to separate truth from speculation.
When asked for comment, Kinzinger had not responded to inquiries about whether his post was intended as factual or humorous. The investigation found no evidence supporting the existence of the alleged pre-Easter wager on Trump’s praise of Allah.
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9 Comments
This story highlights the need for caution when evaluating claims about insider trading or market manipulation, even on decentralized platforms like Polymarket. I’m glad the facts were investigated and the truth was uncovered.
I’m glad to see this claim was thoroughly investigated and found to be false. It’s crucial that we remain vigilant against the spread of misinformation, even when the story seems too juicy to resist sharing. Fact-checking is the foundation of responsible journalism.
I appreciate the diligence in fact-checking this story. It’s crucial that we rely on credible sources and resist the temptation to spread unsubstantiated claims, no matter how juicy they may seem. Maintaining integrity in reporting is essential.
This is a valuable lesson in the importance of verifying information, especially when it comes to high-stakes financial transactions and political figures. I’m glad the Disinformation Commission took the time to thoroughly investigate and debunk this claim.
Agreed. Fact-checking is crucial to combat the spread of misinformation, which can have serious consequences. It’s reassuring to see this claim thoroughly investigated and refuted.
Kudos to the Disinformation Commission for their diligent work in getting to the bottom of this story. Verifying claims, especially those involving public figures and financial markets, is essential for maintaining trust in the media.
This is a good example of why we should be skeptical of sensational claims, especially those involving insider trading or political scandals. It’s important to rely on credible sources and fact-based reporting to separate truth from fiction.
Interesting claim, but it’s good to see it has been thoroughly debunked. Without concrete evidence, such rumors can spread quickly on social media. It’s important to rely on authoritative and fact-based reporting to separate truth from fiction, especially when it comes to high-profile political figures.
While the idea of someone making money off an unlikely Trump tweet is intriguing, it’s good that this particular claim has been proven false. Spreading unverified information, even in jest, can contribute to the spread of misinformation.