Fact Check: Has the Republican Party Failed to Flip Any Seats Since Trump’s Victory?

Democrats Continue State Legislative Winning Streak, Flipping 30 Seats Since Trump’s Return to Office

Since Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, Democrats have maintained a remarkable streak in state legislative races across the country, flipping 30 Republican-held seats while the GOP has failed to capture a single Democratic seat in the same period.

The trend continued Tuesday night when Democrat Emily Gregory defeated Republican Jon Maples in a special election for Florida House District 87, a seat previously held by Republicans. Her victory marks the 30th state legislative seat Democrats have flipped since Trump’s 2024 election victory.

This pattern has caught significant attention from political observers and campaign strategists as the 2026 midterm elections approach. While special and off-year elections historically draw less attention than general elections, the consistent Democratic gains may signal shifting voter preferences at the local level.

“The DLCC has been on the ground all cycle recruiting quality candidates and supporting strong campaigns across every corner of the country,” Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee President Heather Williams said in a statement to Newsweek. “We have a proven strategy for winning back power in the states for Democrats, and we have built undeniable momentum heading into the midterms.”

Republicans, however, downplay the significance of these results. Kiersten Pels, the Republican National Committee’s National press secretary, told Newsweek: “Ken Martin [Democratic National Committee chair] is desperately trying to spin state legislative specials as some kind of national ‘wave,’ even though these races have never been predictive of general elections.”

Pels added that “Democrats are consumed by infighting, factional warfare, and competing agendas that are tearing their party apart. Meanwhile, Republicans remain united behind President Trump and his America First policies that are lowering costs, strengthening our economy, and delivering real results for American families.”

The Democratic success in state legislative races has been documented by several national news outlets and election trackers. NBC News confirmed Gregory’s victory in Florida represented yet another Democratic flip with no Republican counterparts during Trump’s second term.

POLITICO reported in March that “Democrats have flipped 28 Republican-held state legislative seats… Republicans are at zero.” The Downballot, which maintains a comprehensive tracker of state legislative special elections for the 2025-26 cycle, has now updated that total to 30 Democratic flips with no Republican gains.

It’s important to note that these figures refer specifically to state legislative seats, not federal congressional races, governorships, or party switches by sitting legislators. Additionally, they reflect only a partial election cycle consisting of special and off-year elections rather than a complete midterm cycle.

Special elections often have lower turnout than general elections and can be influenced by local factors that may not translate to broader electoral trends. However, the consistent pattern across multiple states and districts has raised questions about whether these results might foreshadow the upcoming midterms.

State legislative races have taken on increased importance in recent years as policy battles over issues like abortion, education, and voting rights have shifted to state capitals. Following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in 2022, state legislatures have become critical battlegrounds for reproductive rights policies.

Democrats hope to capitalize on this momentum as they approach the 2026 midterms, which historically tend to favor the party out of power. The party has strategically targeted suburban and exurban districts where shifting demographics and voter concerns about issues like reproductive rights and healthcare might provide electoral advantages.

For Republicans, the challenge will be to translate Trump’s national popularity among the party base into down-ballot success, particularly in competitive districts where local issues may overshadow national politics.

As both parties prepare for the midterm elections, these special election results will likely inform campaign strategies, resource allocation, and candidate recruitment efforts in the months ahead.