Fact Check: Grocery Prices Rising, Contradicting Trump’s Claim of Steep Decline

Recent data contradicts President Trump’s grocery price claims, showing consistent increases since his return to office. Consumer Price Index figures released Friday revealed a 0.3% rise in average grocery prices from August to September, following a 0.6% jump from July to August—the largest monthly increase in three years.

The statistics paint a clear picture contrary to the President’s repeated assertions that grocery prices are “down” or “way down.” In fact, September’s grocery prices stood approximately 2.7% higher than the same period last year and about 1.4% above January levels when Trump resumed the presidency.

These increases have been widespread across most product categories tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Four of the six major grocery categories saw price hikes from August to September: cereals and bakery products rose 0.7%, nonalcoholic beverages increased 0.7%, meats, poultry, fish, and eggs climbed 0.3%, and the “other food at home” category went up 0.5%. While fruits and vegetables remained unchanged, only dairy and related products decreased, dropping 0.5%.

The year-over-year comparison shows all six major grocery categories experiencing inflation. Since September 2024, nonalcoholic beverages have increased 5.3%, while the meats, poultry, fish, and eggs category rose 5.2%. Other categories showed more modest but still significant increases: other food items up 1.9%, cereals and bakery products up 1.6%, fruits and vegetables up 1.3%, and dairy products up 0.7%.

Certain items have seen particularly dramatic price increases. Coffee prices have surged 18.9% since last September, while beef and veal costs have jumped 14.7%. These specific increases significantly outpace the overall consumer price inflation rate of 3.0% over the same period.

The contradiction between these economic realities and the President’s statements is stark. Trump campaigned on promises to reduce grocery costs, and since returning to the White House, has repeatedly claimed success despite contrary evidence from federal data. Even after the September release showing the substantial 0.6% July-to-August increase, the President continued making claims such as “Grocery prices are way down” as recently as Tuesday.

While some price fluctuation is normal in the grocery sector, economists point to specific Trump administration policies as contributors to the current upward trend. Michigan State University professor David Ortega identifies two key factors: tariffs on imported goods (including food products) and immigration enforcement policies affecting farm labor.

“This uptick in food prices is consistent with what we would expect the effects of some of the administration’s policies to have on food,” Ortega explained.

The economist highlighted recent price spikes in predominantly imported products like coffee and bananas, as well as other grocery items subject to significant tariffs, including beef. While acknowledging that multiple factors influence food prices, Ortega stated, “I’m pretty confident in saying the tariffs and the current trade policy is contributing to these increases that we’re seeing.”

Food economists note that while the current inflation rate remains lower than the dramatic spikes seen in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the persistent upward trend contradicts the administration’s narrative. Market analysts continue to monitor these developments closely, as food inflation directly impacts household budgets across the country.

The disparity between official economic data and presidential statements raises questions about economic messaging as consumers continue to feel the impact of rising grocery costs in their daily shopping experiences.