Fact Check: Examining Trump’s Inaccurate Statements About Poll Performance

In a rare moment of constitutional clarity, President Donald Trump acknowledged Tuesday that he cannot seek a third term in the White House, stating that “if you read it, it’s pretty clear I’m not allowed to run.” However, his accompanying claims about his popularity contain significant factual inaccuracies that contradict available polling data.

Trump asserted that he currently enjoys his “highest poll numbers that I’ve ever had” and claimed to have “the best numbers for any president in many years.” Both statements are demonstrably false according to multiple polling aggregators and historical presidential approval ratings.

Current polling averages show Trump’s approval ratings have actually declined substantially since taking office in January. The New York Times polling average places Trump at a net negative-11 points as of Tuesday, with 43% approval and 54% disapproval. This represents a dramatic 20-point net decline from the first week of his term, when he enjoyed positive-9 net approval (52% approval, 43% disapproval).

CNN’s Poll of Polls tells a similar story, showing Trump with negative-15 net approval (41% approval, 56% disapproval) as of Wednesday. This reflects a 14-point net drop since early February.

Other respected polling aggregates confirm this downward trend. G. Elliott Morris, co-founder of FiftyPlusOne.news, calculates Trump’s net approval at approximately negative-14 points, down about 26 net points since the term began. Data journalist Nate Silver’s average shows negative-10 points, a 22-point decline from January.

When the White House was asked to comment on these discrepancies, they did not respond to CNN’s request.

While Trump does maintain strong support among Republicans, often polling around 90% approval within his party, this hardly constitutes his “highest poll numbers ever” overall. Even within his party base, he is not at a personal record high.

Trump’s assertion about having “the best numbers for any president in many years” is perhaps his most easily refuted claim. Historical polling shows that every modern president reached significantly higher approval peaks during their tenures. President Barack Obama achieved 69% approval early in his first term, President George W. Bush reached an extraordinary 90% following September 11, 2001, and even President Joe Biden, who struggled with low ratings through much of his presidency, reached 57% approval in both January and April 2021.

Even when comparing presidents at identical points in their terms, Trump’s claim fails to stand up. According to Nate Silver’s historical tracking, on the date Trump made his claim while having approximately negative-10 net approval, his predecessors were faring much better: Obama had about positive-9 net approval in his first term, George W. Bush approximately positive-76, Bill Clinton positive-2, George H.W. Bush about positive-38, Ronald Reagan around positive-20, and Jimmy Carter approximately positive-24.

The pattern continues further back, with Richard Nixon at about positive-27, John F. Kennedy approximately positive-65, Dwight D. Eisenhower around positive-45, and Harry Truman about positive-41.

Some might note that Trump is serving a non-consecutive second term, which creates a different comparison point. However, even accounting for this, Gallup’s quarterly presidential approval tracking shows that, with the exception of Nixon, Trump had lower average approval in his 19th quarter as president than any two-term president since at least Eisenhower in the 1950s.

These findings highlight a significant disconnect between Trump’s perception of his popularity and the measurable reality reflected in diverse polling sources, raising questions about the information bubble surrounding the president.