Fact Check: Examining Keir Starmer’s Popularity, Muslim Mayors and Disputed AI Epstein Image

Full Fact Debunks Recent Claims: PM Popularity, Muslim Mayors, and Fake Epstein Image

Recent polling data suggests Prime Minister Keir Starmer may indeed be experiencing historically low approval ratings, but claims about him being the “most unpopular” Prime Minister in history require important context and nuance, according to Full Fact, the UK’s largest fact-checking organization.

Multiple measures exist for tracking prime ministerial popularity, each with different methodologies and historical timelines. Polling expert Sir John Curtice notes the distinction between “perceived performance” and “likeability,” which can yield different results when measuring a leader’s standing.

Ipsos, which has tracked prime ministerial “satisfaction ratings” since 1977, reported in September that Starmer’s ratings were the lowest in their polling history, with just 13% of voters expressing satisfaction. While this figure improved slightly to 15% by January, his net satisfaction score remained deeply negative at -62.

Analysis of Ipsos data confirms that Starmer’s scores have indeed fallen below those of his predecessors on multiple metrics. However, competing polling organizations tell a more nuanced story.

YouGov’s favorability tracking showed Starmer with a January net favorability of -57, which, while poor, still outperformed Liz Truss’s October 2022 score of -70. More recent YouGov data from February showed improvement for Starmer, with his net favorability rising to -47.

Similarly, Opinium’s approval tracking earlier this month showed Starmer with a -44 net approval rating, which, while his “joint lowest score ever,” matched Theresa May’s May 2019 rating and still exceeded Liz Truss’s October 2022 score of -47.

Most polls cited were conducted before February 9, when Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar called for Starmer’s resignation, potentially affecting subsequent polling.

In another fact-check, Full Fact investigated viral claims that “75% of England’s mayors are Muslim,” finding the assertion to be baseless.

England’s mayoral system includes directly elected metro mayors, local authority mayors, and ceremonial civic mayors. Full Fact identified only three Muslim individuals among the 27 directly elected mayors: London Mayor Sadiq Khan, Newham Mayor Rokhsana Fiaz, and Tower Hamlets Mayor Lutfur Rahman.

The Local Government Association maintains no comprehensive religious demographic data on civic mayors. Full Fact’s research into London’s current civic mayors, despite the capital being England’s most religiously diverse region with a 15% Muslim population, identified just one Muslim civic mayor, plus the Muslim Speaker of Tower Hamlets who serves an equivalent ceremonial role.

Many social media posts advancing the 75% claim feature an image of 18 apparently Muslim individuals presented as current mayors. Full Fact’s analysis determined that while these individuals have served as mayors at various points, only five currently hold mayoral office.

Full Fact also debunked a viral image allegedly showing Jeffrey Epstein alive in Tel Aviv. The widely-shared image, which depicts a bearded man wearing sunglasses crossing a street, has been identified as AI-generated through Google’s reverse image search technology.

The image contains a SynthID digital watermark, invisible to the human eye but detectable by technology, confirming its artificial origin. The Hebrew street signs visible in the image are nonsensical, with no street called “Haangus Ev.” existing in Tel Aviv or anywhere in Israel. Some uncropped versions of the image also display a visible Google Gemini watermark.

Epstein, who faced sex trafficking charges, died in 2019 while awaiting trial.