Senator Paul Questions Legality of US Maritime Strikes, Citing Coast Guard Drug Interception Data

Senator Rand Paul has raised concerns about the legality of recent U.S. military strikes against vessels in Caribbean and Pacific waters, pointing to Coast Guard statistics suggesting a significant percentage of suspected drug boats turn out to be clean.

The Kentucky Republican, who chairs the Senate Homeland Security Committee, challenged President Donald Trump’s justification for strikes that targeted eight vessels, mostly from Venezuela. While Trump has maintained the operations were legal because the boats carried drugs bound for the United States, Paul countered with data showing the uncertain nature of such intelligence.

“When you stop people at sea in international waters, or in your own waters, you announce that you’re going to board the ship and you’re looking for contraband, smuggling or drugs. This happens every day off of Miami,” Paul said during an October 19 appearance on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “We know from Coast Guard statistics that about 25 percent of the time the Coast Guard boards a ship, there are no drugs.”

The senator’s critique comes as the death toll from the maritime strikes has exceeded 30 people. Notably, the Trump administration has yet to provide concrete evidence that the targeted vessels actually contained drugs.

Coast Guard data largely supports Paul’s claim. According to the agency’s 2024 fiscal year report, drug runs were disrupted in 91 out of 125 boat interdictions, representing a 73% success rate. This means approximately 27% of vessel searches yielded no drugs, closely aligning with Paul’s 25% figure.

The data shows a gradual improvement in the Coast Guard’s interception efficiency over recent years. When the agency began tracking these statistics in fiscal year 2021, it reported a drug disruption rate of 59%, meaning 41% of searched boats contained no drugs. This rate increased to 64% in 2022, 69% in 2023, and reached 73% in 2024 – still short of the agency’s 80% annual goal.

However, drug policy experts note some ambiguity in how the Coast Guard defines a “drug disruption,” which could impact the interpretation of these statistics.

“If the Coast Guard boards a vessel and finds a known drug trafficker but no drugs, and that individual gets arrested and convicted, does that count as a ‘drug disruption’?” questioned Jonathan Caulkins, a Carnegie Mellon University drug policy researcher. “Or suppose they approach the vessel, it jettisons the drugs overboard, and so the Coast Guard seizes the vessel but the drugs have disappeared into the water. Is that a successful disruption?”

Further complicating matters, a 2025 Coast Guard report evaluating data from fiscal years 2021 through 2023 found that some drug interdiction reports lacked seizure results or required documentation, raising questions about data accuracy.

Security experts caution that Coast Guard statistics might not directly translate to the specific circumstances of the recent military strikes. Intelligence about particular vessels might justify higher-confidence operations, though without transparency from the administration, this remains speculative.

The controversy occurs against a backdrop of broader questions about drug trafficking routes. Drug policy experts note that Venezuela plays a relatively minor role in the flow of narcotics to the United States. Most illicit fentanyl reaching American communities originates from Mexico and enters primarily through official southern border crossings, typically smuggled by U.S. citizens rather than foreign nationals.

As debate continues over the proportionality and legality of military force against suspected drug vessels, Paul’s highlighting of Coast Guard interception data introduces an empirical element to a conversation otherwise dominated by security rhetoric and political positioning during an election season.

While the senator’s statement appears largely accurate based on available data, the specific contexts of maritime drug interdiction and military strikes remain distinct enough to warrant careful application of these statistics to current operations.