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Illinois Governor Disputes Chicago’s Murder Rate Ranking in Fox News Interview
Illinois Governor JB Pritzker defended Chicago’s safety record during a recent Fox News interview, claiming the city was “not in the top 30” big cities with the highest murder rates. However, FBI data from 2024 shows Chicago ranked 15th among U.S. cities with populations of at least 250,000 residents, contradicting the governor’s assertion.
The exchange occurred during an October 23 interview with Fox News anchor Bret Baier. Pritzker, who is viewed as a potential Democratic presidential contender in 2028, was initially discussing federal immigration enforcement in Chicago when Baier pivoted to question the city’s murder statistics.
“Why does Chicago have the highest murder rate of all the big cities?” Baier asked.
Pritzker immediately pushed back: “We are not in the top 30 in terms of our murder rate. Our murder rate has been cut in half over the last four years. And every year it’s gone down by double digits.”
Baier countered by displaying a graphic that ranked Chicago first among America’s most populous cities, with a murder rate of 17.47 per 100,000 residents. The chart compared Chicago to other major metropolitan areas including Philadelphia, Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Phoenix, Los Angeles, New York, and San Diego.
What viewers weren’t told was that Fox News had defined “big cities” narrowly as municipalities with populations exceeding 1 million. When using this limited definition, Chicago did indeed rank highest among the nine cities that qualified.
Crime in Chicago has become a political flashpoint in 2024, with former President Donald Trump falsely labeling it the world’s “murder capital” and calling for National Guard deployment against local officials’ wishes.
When approached for clarification, Pritzker’s office did not specify how the governor defined “big cities” or how he determined Chicago’s ranking outside the top 30.
A more comprehensive analysis of 2024 FBI data reveals that Chicago’s ranking varies significantly depending on population thresholds. When examining cities with populations above 500,000, Chicago ranked 10th out of 37. Among cities with more than 250,000 residents—a comparison crime data experts typically consider more standard—Chicago ranked 15th out of 87 cities.
Jeff Asher, co-founder of crime data consulting firm AH Datalytics, noted that limiting comparisons to cities with over 1 million residents creates “an arbitrarily tight comparison group.”
Cities with the highest murder rates in 2024 among those with populations exceeding 250,000 were St. Louis, Memphis, Baltimore, Detroit, and Cleveland, all reporting between 30 and 54 murders per 100,000 residents.
Pritzker’s claim about Chicago’s murder rate being “cut in half” over four years has some merit, though not precisely as stated. According to the Council on Criminal Justice, which tracks crime trends across U.S. cities, Chicago’s homicide rate for the first half of 2025 was 7 per 100,000 residents, down 45% from 12.8 per 100,000 during the same period in 2021.
On a calendar-year basis, Chicago’s homicide rate declined from 30.1 in 2021 to 21.8 in 2024, according to CCJ’s “Year-End 2024 Update.” This contradicts Pritzker’s claim of double-digit percentage drops every year, though the overall downward trend is significant.
Chicago Police Department data shows reported murders and homicide victimizations have declined approximately 29% through October 26, 2025, compared to the same period last year, suggesting the city is on track for another substantial decrease.
While Chicago has made progress in reducing violent crime, the governor’s assertion that the city ranks outside the top 30 for murder rates among major U.S. cities does not align with current FBI data and standard metropolitan comparisons.
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6 Comments
The dispute over Chicago’s murder rate ranking highlights the importance of using reliable, up-to-date data when making public statements on sensitive issues like public safety. Transparency and fact-checking are critical.
As someone with investments in the mining and energy sectors, I’m always monitoring developments that could impact commodity prices and the business environment in major urban centers. This dispute over Chicago’s murder rate is an interesting data point to follow.
As an investor, I’m always interested in how crime and security issues can impact economic development and business operations in major cities like Chicago. This debate is relevant, but I’d like to see a more comprehensive analysis.
This is an important debate that touches on public policy, data integrity, and political dynamics. I hope both sides can come together to provide a clear, objective assessment of Chicago’s crime trends and public safety situation.
I’m curious to hear more about the governor’s reasoning for his claims. The FBI data seems to contradict his assertion, so I wonder if there are other factors or context he’s considering. It’s a complex issue.
Interesting debate on Chicago’s murder rate. Seems like there’s some conflicting data and perspectives. I wonder how the governor’s claims compare to other independent analyses of the city’s crime statistics.