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In a market milestone long anticipated by enthusiasts, Bitcoin finally breached the symbolic $100,000 threshold in late 2025, triggering celebrations across social media platforms. Investors shared screenshots, posted celebratory messages with rocket emojis, and resurrected old predictions from 2021 that had foretold this moment.
Yet amid the jubilation, a sobering analysis began circulating through financial circles. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, amplified a chart revealing an uncomfortable truth: when adjusted for inflation using 2020 dollars, Bitcoin never actually crossed $100,000. It peaked just below that mark at approximately $99,848 in real terms.
This discrepancy highlights a fundamental economic reality often overlooked in cryptocurrency markets. Money’s value shifts beneath our feet, even when nominal prices appear to reach new heights.
“The milestone people were cheering was real, it just wasn’t the same milestone the internet thinks it is,” explained one market analyst. “If you want Bitcoin to be worth $100,000 in 2020 purchasing power today, the nominal price has to be closer to $125,000.”
Using standard inflation metrics, a $100,000 figure in late 2025 dollars equates to roughly $80,000 in 2020 purchasing power. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows the average level in 2020 was approximately 258.8, while by late 2025 it had climbed into the mid-320s—representing a significant erosion of dollar value.
The timing of this milestone coincided with unusual circumstances in economic data collection. During a 2025 lapse in federal appropriations, the Bureau of Labor Statistics suspended CPI operations, and Reuters reported the unprecedented cancellation of October’s CPI release. This disruption complicated efforts to precisely measure whether Bitcoin had achieved its inflation-adjusted target.
For institutional investors, this distinction matters significantly. Unlike retail traders who celebrate nominal price points, professional fund managers focus on real returns—what an investment earns after accounting for inflation and compared to alternative opportunities. A pension fund or treasury desk evaluates assets based on these metrics rather than psychological price barriers.
“When you put Bitcoin’s price in real terms, you force the conversation into a place that institutions live all the time,” noted a veteran cryptocurrency analyst. “This cycle has been defined by institutions showing up through spot Bitcoin ETFs. If Bitcoin wants to mature into a real macro asset, it eventually has to be judged the same way everything else is judged.”
Bitcoin’s market behavior following the peak revealed the fragility of the milestone. After touching the nominal $100,000 mark in October, the cryptocurrency experienced a sharp 30% pullback by December. US spot Bitcoin ETF assets under management similarly declined, dropping from a peak of $169.5 billion on October 6 to approximately $120.7 billion by early December, according to CryptoSlate’s data compilation.
Despite this volatility, underlying on-chain metrics suggest growing fundamental strength. Bitcoin’s realized capitalization—a measure that values each coin at the price it last moved—reached a record $1.125 trillion in 2025. This metric indicates more coins are being held at higher cost bases than ever before, suggesting stronger adoption despite price fluctuations.
Looking forward, analysts see three potential scenarios for Bitcoin. In a disinflationary environment with monetary easing, nominal price gains would retain more real value. Alternatively, persistent inflation could produce hollow nominal highs that remain unimpressive in purchasing power terms. The third path involves accelerated ETF demand driving prices through inflation-adjusted barriers regardless of macroeconomic conditions.
Citibank’s framework for 2026 presents a base case price target of $143,000, with a bull case exceeding $189,000 and a bear case around $78,500—with institutional adoption through ETFs remaining central to these projections.
The Bitcoin milestone paradox reflects a broader economic reality: inflation quietly rewrites our financial goals while we pursue them. It transforms the meaning of round-number achievements in all asset classes, not just cryptocurrencies.
“Six figures was a big moment, it still is, and the next real milestone is already higher than most people think,” concluded a market strategist. “If Bitcoin wants to feel like it’s entering a new era, it will have to clear levels that sound a little absurd today, partly because Bitcoin is Bitcoin, partly because the dollar keeps shrinking in real terms.”
As the market continues to evolve, the question shifts from whether Bitcoin hit a nominal target to what that achievement represents in real purchasing power—a distinction that may ultimately matter more to Bitcoin’s institutional adoption than any headline-grabbing price point.
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7 Comments
This is a good reminder that nominal prices can be misleading if we don’t account for inflation. I appreciate the nuanced look at Bitcoin’s performance in real terms. It’s helpful to see the full picture beyond just the headline numbers.
The $99,848 real-world peak for Bitcoin is still an impressive milestone, even if it falls short of the symbolic $100,000 mark. Curious to see how the cryptocurrency market evolves as inflationary pressures continue.
This is an important reminder that we need to look beyond just the headline numbers when analyzing asset performance. Appreciate the detailed look at Bitcoin’s valuation in real, inflation-adjusted terms.
Insightful look at the impact of inflation on Bitcoin’s price. It’s easy to get caught up in the hype around new all-time highs, but this analysis provides a more grounded assessment. Looking forward to seeing further research in this area.
This is a valuable reality check on Bitcoin’s performance. While the nominal $100,000 price is noteworthy, the real-world value is more important for understanding its true purchasing power. Good to see data-driven analysis cutting through the noise.
Interesting analysis on Bitcoin’s real-world valuation. Inflation is an important factor to consider when looking at nominal price targets. Kudos to the researchers for digging into the data and providing this perspective.
Fascinating to see the difference between the nominal and real-world price targets for Bitcoin. Highlights the importance of economic fundamentals, not just speculative hype, when assessing the true worth of cryptocurrencies.