Bill Gates Says Climate Change “Will Not Lead to Humanity’s Demise” in Recent Memo

Philanthropist and Microsoft founder Bill Gates recently stated that “climate change will not lead to humanity’s demise,” according to a memo published on his website in October 2023. The statement, which has circulated widely across social media platforms including Reddit, X (formerly Twitter), Facebook, Instagram, Threads, and Bluesky, represents Gates’ nuanced position on the global climate crisis.

In his memo titled “Three Tough Truths about Climate,” Gates addressed the upcoming COP30 climate summit in Brazil, offering his perspective on climate change’s severity while rejecting what he characterized as a “doomsday outlook.” Gates wrote, “Although climate change will have serious consequences—particularly for people in the poorest countries—it will not lead to humanity’s demise.”

Gates, a longtime advocate for climate innovation and reducing global warming, criticized apocalyptic narratives for focusing too narrowly on short-term goals rather than comprehensive solutions. He argued that such perspectives fail to address the needs of those most vulnerable to climate impacts, particularly in developing nations.

“Fortunately for all of us, this view is wrong,” Gates wrote, referring to the catastrophic viewpoint. “People will be able to live and thrive in most places on Earth for the foreseeable future. Emissions projections have gone down, and with the right policies and investments, innovation will allow us to drive emissions down much further.”

Some observers have interpreted Gates’ memo as signaling a softening of his position on climate change, but Gates explicitly addressed this potential misinterpretation. “I know that some climate advocates will disagree with me, call me a hypocrite because of my own carbon footprint (which I fully offset with legitimate carbon credits), or see this as a sneaky way of arguing that we shouldn’t take climate change seriously,” he acknowledged.

He emphasized that his position should not be misunderstood as downplaying the issue: “To be clear: Climate change is a very important problem. It needs to be solved, along with other problems like malaria and malnutrition. Every tenth of a degree of heating that we prevent is hugely beneficial because a stable climate makes it easier to improve people’s lives.”

Gates has consistently positioned himself as a major figure in climate action. In 2021, he published a book titled “How to Avoid a Climate Disaster,” which outlined strategies for reaching zero greenhouse gas emissions globally. He has previously warned that unchecked climate change could cause a death toll five times worse than the COVID-19 pandemic.

His approach emphasizes practical solutions and technological innovation rather than apocalyptic messaging. Gates suggested in his memo that governments should “put human welfare at the center of our climate strategies” by reducing the costs of green alternatives and improving agriculture and health infrastructure in poorer countries.

The Gates Foundation and Breakthrough Energy, an investment platform founded by Gates to accelerate clean energy innovation, continue to fund projects aimed at mitigating climate change’s effects. Breakthrough Energy’s portfolio includes investments in sustainable aviation fuels, long-duration energy storage, and direct air capture technologies—reflecting Gates’ belief that technological advancement plays a critical role in addressing climate challenges.

As the COP30 climate summit approaches, Gates’ perspective highlights ongoing debates within climate advocacy circles about messaging, priorities, and the balance between addressing immediate climate impacts versus investing in long-term technological solutions.