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Recent reports suggesting a surge in Generation Z Catholics in the United States have sparked debate among researchers about religious demographic trends among young Americans.
International Catholic news service ZENIT and Catholic AI agency Magisterium AI recently highlighted findings from the 2023 Cooperative Election Study (CES) suggesting that Gen Z adults who identify as Catholic (21%) now outnumber those identifying as Protestant (19%). This would mark a significant shift in the American religious landscape.
However, several prominent researchers have questioned the validity of these findings. Brian Schaffner, co-director of CES, acknowledged the raw data but cautioned against drawing firm conclusions. “Once we account for sampling error, we can’t be confident that the Catholic figure is actually larger than the Protestant figure,” Schaffner explained. “More importantly, it is quite clear that the 2023 figure is an outlier for our data.”
Schaffner pointed to the stark difference between the 2022 and 2023 CES findings. In 2022, 20% of Gen Z respondents identified as Protestant and only 14% as Catholic. “It seems pretty clear from looking at that context that the 2023 figure for Catholics is almost certainly too high,” he noted.
The Pew Research Center’s Religion and Public Life team offered contradicting evidence. Their recent Religious Landscape Study found that among adults born between 2000-2006 (roughly ages 18-24), Protestants significantly outnumber Catholics by a 2-to-1 margin, with 28% identifying as Protestant and 14% as Catholic.
Pew researchers also emphasized that their data does not support the notion that Catholicism is growing among younger Americans. “Young adults as a whole are far less religious than older adults,” they stated. Their report “Religion Holds Steady in America” indicates that Catholic disaffiliation remains a significant trend, with 12% of today’s youngest adults having left Catholicism, while only 1% have converted to it.
Religion researcher Ryan Burge from Washington University’s John C. Danforth Center identified multiple “aberrations” in the 2023 CES data that raise concerns about its reliability. Comparing data across multiple years, Burge noted the 2023 figures showed unusual spikes in Catholic identification among millennials (up from 16% to 20%) and Gen Z (up from 15% to 21%).
“The 2023 CES data is a lot more Catholic than it ‘should’ be,” Burge wrote in an analysis. He pointed to further inconsistencies, such as Catholic Mass attendance patterns that showed implausible year-over-year changes. Weekly Mass attendance reportedly jumped from 29% to 34% in a single year, while the percentage of “born-again” or “evangelical” Catholics increased by nine percentage points from 2022 to 2023, far exceeding the typical annual changes of one or two percentage points seen in previous years.
Despite questions about the CES data, there are indications of growth in certain sectors of Catholic life among young Americans. Catholic colleges have reported enrollment increases, with the Cardinal Newman Society citing data showing that student enrollment at Catholic institutions has risen by 75% since 1970, from 411,111 to 717,197 in 2022.
Several Catholic colleges have reported record enrollments for the 2025-26 academic year. Ave Maria University achieved record undergraduate enrollment of 1,342 students, Benedictine College reached 2,250 undergraduates (a 22% increase over ten years), and The Catholic University of America has seen an 11% growth in undergraduate enrollment over five years.
Catholic evangelists also report anecdotal evidence of increasing interest in Catholicism on some college campuses, with rises in baptisms and confirmations among students. They attribute this growth to young adults seeking certainty, stability, and faith in an uncertain world.
While the debate continues over the exact religious composition of Gen Z Americans, researchers agree that more reliable data is needed before declaring a definitive shift in the religious landscape.
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8 Comments
Interesting to see the debate around Gen Z religious trends. The data seems inconclusive, with the 2023 CES results an outlier compared to 2022. More research would be needed to draw firm conclusions about the current state of Catholic vs Protestant affiliation among younger Americans.
The religious landscape is certainly shifting, but I’m not sure these results definitively show a surge in Gen Z Catholicism. Sampling error and year-over-year variation need to be accounted for. Curious to see how this plays out with more data points.
The findings do seem to be an outlier compared to previous years. I would caution against over-interpreting a single data point, especially on a topic as nuanced as religious affiliation. Longitudinal analysis would be crucial to identifying any meaningful shifts in Gen Z religious trends.
This is a complex topic with many factors at play. The decline of traditional Protestantism and rise of non-denominational Christianity among younger generations makes interpreting the data challenging. I’d caution against drawing sweeping conclusions from a single study’s findings.
Agreed, a more holistic look at the data over time would give a clearer picture. Religious affiliation trends tend to evolve gradually, so a one-year shift should be viewed cautiously.
This is an interesting data point, but I share the researchers’ concerns about its validity and representativeness. Religious affiliation is a complex topic that requires careful, longitudinal analysis to identify substantive trends. A single-year spike should be viewed with appropriate skepticism.
Fascinating to see the debate around these religious demographic shifts. I agree that more comprehensive data is needed to understand the full picture. The decline of traditional Protestantism and rise of non-denominational Christianity adds another layer of complexity to interpreting the trends.
While the reported increase in Gen Z Catholic identification is intriguing, I share the researchers’ skepticism about drawing firm conclusions. Religious affiliation is a complex and nuanced topic that requires careful analysis of long-term trends. This single data point raises more questions than answers.