Trump’s Economic Claims Ahead of State of the Union Address Face Scrutiny

President Donald Trump is expected to highlight economic achievements during his State of the Union address on February 24, but many of his recent claims about the economy contain misleading or false information, according to economic data and expert analysis.

In recent weeks, Trump has characterized the U.S. economy as “booming” and claimed “America is the hottest country anywhere in the world.” However, examination of his statements on economic growth, jobs, inflation, and other key indicators reveals a pattern of exaggeration and selective use of statistics.

On economic growth, Trump has declared that “under my leadership, economic growth is exploding to numbers unheard of.” While the economy did grow at rates of 3.8% and 4.4% in the second and third quarters of 2025 respectively, these figures fall short of historic records. For comparison, the economy expanded at a 4.7% rate during the third quarter of 2023 under President Biden, and the post-pandemic recovery in 2020 saw a remarkable 34.9% quarterly increase.

When touting job creation, Trump accurately states that more Americans are employed now than at any point in U.S. history, with 158.6 million people working as of January. However, this statistic naturally tracks population growth and obscures more relevant employment metrics. Job growth during Trump’s first year in office (359,000 jobs or 0.2%) was actually slower than during Biden’s final year (1.2 million jobs or 0.8%). Additionally, the employment-population ratio declined from 60.1% to 59.8% in Trump’s first year.

Trump’s inflation claims are particularly misleading. He has repeatedly stated he “inherited the worst inflation in the history of our country,” despite the 3% inflation rate when he took office being far below the 9.1% peak in June 2022 under Biden, not to mention the 23.7% inflation seen in 1920. While inflation has decreased to 2.4% in January, prices continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace than a year ago.

The president has also falsely claimed to have “ended Biden stagflation.” However, economists note that the U.S. economy under Biden did not meet the definition of stagflation, which requires high inflation combined with weak economic growth and rising unemployment. Rather than a dramatic economic transformation, experts describe the current situation as “a continuation of trends that were already well underway before Trump took office.”

Regarding the stock market, Trump’s boasts of unprecedented growth require context. Since his inauguration, the S&P 500 has risen 14.5%, only slightly exceeding analysts’ expectations of 12% for 2025. This follows gains of over 20% in each of Biden’s final two years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached 50,000 in early February before retreating slightly, but it’s worth noting that only about 62% of Americans own any stock, with ownership heavily concentrated among wealthy households.

Trump’s claims about energy and grocery prices also need qualification. While he states that “groceries [are] going down,” BLS data shows overall at-home food prices increased about 2.2% year-over-year as of January, though some individual items like eggs and bread have become less expensive. Similarly, his assertion that “energy [is] going down” is only partially accurate – the CPI for energy decreased 0.3% over the past year, but household energy costs rose 6.6%.

On trade, Trump’s claim of slashing the “gaping trade deficit by a staggering 77%” misrepresents the data. The annual U.S. trade deficit in goods and services decreased by just 0.2% in 2025. Trump’s figure appears to compare monthly deficits from January 2025 to October, a methodology economists consider unreliable due to normal volatility in monthly trade figures.

As Trump prepares for his address to Congress, the gap between his economic rhetoric and economic reality underscores the importance of scrutinizing presidential claims, particularly on issues central to his administration’s narrative of dramatic economic transformation.